- This time, there is a situation of great confusion
- Booth management will play the main role
- Modi-Shah on one side, Rahul-Priyanka on the other
Pankaj Pathak, Bhopal
This is the first time in the political history of Madhya Pradesh, when in the assembly elections, the voters are most eager and curious about who will be elected to power? But it is certain that this election will decide the direction of future politics of both BJP and Congress. Actually, every election is a challenge and even the leader with the best support base remains worried that he does not know what the election result will be. Because in this country, even mighty leaders like Indira Gandhi and Atal Bihari Vajpayee have had to face defeat.
However, there have also been leaders like Madhavrao Scindia, who never lost any election. No matter how big a person is, his true stature is revealed in elections. Because it is the public that decides, no matter how strong the candidate is. Whatever may be the seat, be it Budni, Raghogarh or Chhindwara! These are the traditional assembly constituencies of Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and two ex-Chief Ministers of Congress – Digvijay Singh and Kamal Nath respectively. Madhya Pradesh has been the stronghold of the previous Bharatiya Jana Sangh and the current Bharatiya Janata Party and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. But Congress has ruled this state most of the time. Left parties were never able to break ground here. Their influence was nominal in a few areas and has now ended. Samyukta Socialist Party and Praja Socialist Party—that is, socialist parties like Sansopa and Prasopa and the Janata Dal that emerged from it—have had some influence. They have, at times, collaborated with the erstwhile Bharatiya Jana Sangh and the present Bharatiya Janata Party against the Congress. It has been happening. For some years, Bahujan Samaj Party and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party also tried to establish their influence here, but these caste parties neither got any major success nor could they establish themselves as a factor here. These days, the Aam Aadmi Party is also trying to establish its supremacy here, but it has not got any success yet in the parliamentary elections. Ultimately, Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party have been established here as the main opposition parties for a long time.
There was a time when Congress had sole rule in this country and even in the states, there were mostly Congress governments. That was the era of Nehru, Shastri, Indira, Rajiv and Narasimha Rao. Since independence, India remained under the influence of Congressism and Congress was said to be the party that provided stability in the country. But when the great socialist leader and thinker Dr. Ram Manohar Lohia raised the slogan of non-Congressism in India, it showed such an impact that non-Congress governments were formed in more than half a dozen states of the country, which were called contract governments. Madhya Pradesh was also not affected by this and here under the leadership of scholar politician and leader of Vindhya Govind Narayan Singh, the government of Samvid, i.e. a Joint Legislative Party was formed. This was the knock of non-Congressism in Madhya Pradesh. Rajmata Vijayaraje Scindia played an important role in the formation of this government. She laid the foundation stone for the downfall of Congress in Madhya Pradesh by toppling the Congress government of Pt. Dwarika Prasad Mishra. This was the turning point in the politics of Madhya Pradesh. However, this government fell after two years. It would be said that it is the misfortune of the non-Congress opposition that both the experiments of non-Congressism failed in Madhya Pradesh. Similarly, the second experiment took place in 1977, when the Janata Party government was formed and fell after 22 months with huge setbacks.
The third opportunity of a non-Congress government also came, when for the first time in 1989, after the Ram-Janaki Rath Yatra, the Bharatiya Janata Party got a clear mandate in Madhya Pradesh and the first BJP government was formed under the leadership of Sunderlal Patwa. But after the demolition of Babri Masjid in 1992, the government was dissolved. The political scenario after this is very clear, when under the leadership of Uma Bharti, Sankalp Yatra was carried out in Madhya Pradesh for one year from 2002 to 2003 and a strong wave of Hindutva spread. As a result, for the first time, a government with a strong majority was formed in Madhya Pradesh by the Bharatiya Janata Party, which won 174 seats. BJP also won the subsequent two assembly elections. But last time i.e. in the year 2018, such an anti-incumbency i.e. anti-incumbency situation was created and that situation still persists.
Market is hot for all kinds of possibilities regarding result
There is a market of various possibilities in the state regarding who will form the government this time. On one hand, it is being said that a hung situation may arise. On the other hand, there is talk of a clear majority in favor of both the parties. People are not trusting pre-election surveys. But no one is ready to say anything with certainty, because no one is able to understand what is in the minds of the voters. There is also a view that everything is based on the percentage of voting. It is also being said that only the one whose booth management is correct and strong can win. Many members of the Union Cabinet, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, campaigned vigorously for the BJP. Whereas the command of Congress’s campaign was in the hands of (brother-sister) Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, who had been running for years. Let’s see which of these waves prevails? Whatever may be the case, both the parties are dreaming of the post of Chief Minister. In Congress, the real name is only that of Kamal Nath, but Suresh Pachauri, Ajay Singh and Arun Yadav are also among the leaders. Whereas in BJP, there is a long list – like Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Narendra Singh Tomar, Kailash Vijayvargiya, Jyotiraditya Scindia, Prahlad Patel Or some other name may come from Modi or Sangh.
Answer to big question lies only with voters
Now in this election of 2023, the question that is imminent is what will happen this time? In these 20 years, if we exclude the 1.25 years of Chief Ministership of Congress’s Kamal Nath, BJP has ruled for 19.25 years. If we exclude about two years of Chief Ministership of Uma Bharti and Babulal Gaur, then Shivraj Singh Chouhan has been in office for nearly 17 years in which he is still holding the post of Chief Minister. Similarly, he took oath as Chief Minister four times. He established the record of holding the post of Chief Minister of BJP for the longest period. After this is the name of Dr. Raman Singh of Chhattisgarh, who held the post of Chief Minister for 15 consecutive years. Prime Minister Narendra Modi comes in third place, who was the Chief Minister of Gujarat for 13 consecutive years. There cannot be two opinions that at present, Shivraj Singh Chauhan is such a charismatic leader of Madhya Pradesh, under whose leadership this fourth assembly election is being held and he has won the party elections twice in a row. The year 2008 election was the first election under his leadership, in which there was his under current. But by the time of the 2013 elections, Narendra Modi had emerged on the national horizon and people started seeing him as the future Prime Minister. Obviously, the Modi wave also had a contribution in the said election. But under the leadership of Shivraj, no one’s magic worked in the 2018 elections and BJP lost the elections, even though it had been four years since Modi became the Prime Minister. It is a different matter that later, by taking Jyotiraditya Scindia and his supporters into the BJP and by breaking some Congress MLAs, the BJP was successful in forming the government. After becoming Chief Minister for the fourth time, Shivraj had to face the challenge of Covid-19 and a huge financial crisis. Till Whichever party becomes the Chief Minister tomorrow, he will have to face the challenge of financial crisis at any cost. What will happen, how will it happen, God knows!
