Shimla, March 9 (UNI) A powerful earthquake of 8 magnitude in Himachal Pradesh could result in nearly 1.6 lakh deaths and around 11 lakh injuries, according to this disaster scenario projection prepared by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA).
NDMA decided to commemorate the 121st anniversary of the devastating 1905 Kangra earthquake on April 1, one of the most destructive seismic events recorded in the Himalayan region.
The observance aims to remind citizens of the region’s seismic vulnerability and promote preparedness against future earthquakes.
The estimate, based on the 2011 Census population of 68.56 lakh, suggests that about 2.3 per cent of the population could lose their lives while nearly 16 per cent may suffer injuries if such a major quake occurs in the state.
The alarming projection comes at a time when the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) has placed the entire state of Himachal Pradesh under the newly created Seismic Zone-VI, the highest earthquake-risk category in the country, under the updated National Seismic Zonation Map released in December 2025.
The new classification reflects the intense tectonic stress prevailing along the Himalayan arc, stretching from Jammu and Kashmir to Arunachal Pradesh, where the Indian plate continues to collide with the Eurasian plate. Under the previous seismic map, Himachal Pradesh was divided between Zone IV (high risk) and Zone V (very high risk) depending on geological variations across districts. However, the revised mapping places all districts uniformly in Zone VI, highlighting the state’s extreme seismic vulnerability.
Experts say the revised classification calls for stronger emphasis on earthquake-resilient construction, disaster preparedness and public awareness. With growing infrastructure development, including highways, tunnels, hydropower projects and urban expansion in the fragile Himalayan terrain, the risk of large-scale damage during a major earthquake remains a serious concern.
Authorities emphasise that preparedness measures such as strict enforcement of earthquake-resistant building codes, community awareness programmes, mock drills and improved early response systems are critical to reducing potential casualties.
Officials say the NDMA scenario projections serve as a reminder of the scale of disaster that could unfold if adequate preventive measures are not implemented in time in one of India’s most seismically sensitive mountain states.
It is worthwhile to mention that the Kangra earthquake of April 4, 1905, measured approximately magnitude 7.8 on the moment magnitude scale and struck the Kangra Valley in the early hours of the morning.
The quake originated at a shallow focal depth of around 6–7 kilometres and was associated with movement along the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) — the major tectonic boundary where the Indian Plate continues to collide with the Eurasian Plate.
Seismological records indicate that the earthquake generated intensity levels of X (Extreme) on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale in several parts of Kangra district. The violent shaking triggered widespread structural collapse across the region, particularly affecting Kangra, Dharamshala, Palampur and surrounding hill settlements.
Historical estimates suggest that over 20,000 people lost their lives, while nearly 100,000 houses and public structures were destroyed or severely damaged.
The earthquake also caused extensive secondary hazards, including landslides, ground fissures and disruption of hillside water channels and irrigation systems. Many masonry buildings constructed without seismic reinforcement collapsed instantly under the intense ground motion.
Geologists consider the 1905 Kangra earthquake a major rupture event along the Himalayan seismic gap, highlighting the enormous tectonic stress accumulating in the region. Even today, large sections of the western Himalaya remain capable of generating earthquakes of magnitude 7 or higher.
To mark the anniversary, the Himachal Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority (HPSDMA) would conduct awareness programmes, mock drills and educational activities in schools and institutions across the state. Earthquake safety exercises such as “Drop, Cover and Hold” drills and evacuation practices will be carried out to train people in responding quickly during seismic emergencies.
Officials say the commemoration serves as a reminder that preparedness, resilient construction and public awareness remain the most effective safeguards in a seismically active mountain state like Himachal Pradesh.
