New Delhi, Dec 27 (UNI) India’s economic rise is entering a decisive phase, with the country firmly on course to become the world’s third largest economy by 2030 and hold that position well into the next decade, according to the World Economic League Table (WELT) 2026.
The WELT is an annual report released by UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) that ranks countries by their projected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over the next 15 years.
The report highlights India as one of the strongest long-term growth stories in the global economy, driven by scale, demographics, and sustained expansion across key sectors.
In 2026, India is projected to rank fourth globally in terms of GDP, overtaking Japan. By 2030, it is expected to move into third place, behind only the United States and China, and remain there through 2040.
This marks a dramatic improvement from India’s ninth position in 2010 and fifth place in 2025, reflecting more than a decade of steady economic transformation.
The report comes at a time when the global economy is facing significant uncertainty. Trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, fiscal pressures, and slowing global growth have weighed on many major economies. Despite these challenges, India’s economic momentum has remained relatively strong.
While global growth slowed to around 2.6 per cent in 2025, India continued to outperform many advanced and emerging economies. Its large domestic market has helped cushion the impact of global trade disruptions, while steady investment activity and expanding consumption have supported overall growth.
The league table underlines that India’s rise is not the result of a short-term rebound, but part of a long-term structural trend that is reshaping the global economic order.
One of the most important drivers behind India’s upward movement is its demographic profile. Unlike many advanced economies facing ageing populations and shrinking workforces, India continues to benefit from a young and expanding working-age population.
The report notes that demographic dynamics will play a critical role in determining future global rankings. India’s growing labour force is expected to support higher levels of production, consumption, and savings over the coming decades.
This demographic dividend gives India a clear advantage over countries such as Japan and several European nations, whose economic growth is increasingly constrained by ageing populations.
As Asia’s share of global GDP rises sharply over the next 15 years, India is expected to be one of the central contributors to this shift.
According to the report, Asia’s share of global GDP is projected to increase from around 36% in 2025 to over 42 per cent by 2040. South and Southeast Asia are key drivers of this trend, and India sits at the heart of this regional transformation.
While China remains the largest contributor to Asia’s economic output, India’s faster population growth and expanding domestic demand ensure it plays an increasingly important role in lifting the region’s overall economic weight.
By 2040, India is expected to stand alongside the US and China as one of the three most influential economies globally.
India’s economic resilience is also linked to the size of its internal market. Unlike export-heavy economies that are highly sensitive to changes in global trade policy, India’s growth is supported by strong domestic consumption, public investment, and services-led expansion.
The report suggests that while global trade disruptions and geopolitical risks will continue to affect growth worldwide, India’s diversified economy and internal demand base provide a degree of insulation from external shocks.
This structural stability is a key reason why India’s ranking continues to improve even as several major economies experience slower growth or stagnation.
The World Economic League Table 2026 emphasises that long-term economic success depends on factors such as infrastructure development, investment levels, institutional stability, and the ability to adapt to changing global conditions.
India’s steady climb in the rankings reflects progress across these areas. Continued investment in infrastructure, gradual improvements in productivity, and deeper integration into global value chains are expected to strengthen India’s economic foundations further.
By 2040, India is projected to remain firmly entrenched as the third-largest economy in the world, highlighting its transition from a fast-growing emerging market to a central pillar of the global economic system.
India’s rise also signals a broader shift in the balance of global economic power. The report projects that Europe and North America will see a gradual decline in their share of global GDP due to demographic pressures and slower growth, while Asia’s influence expands.
Within this changing landscape, India’s growing economic scale enhances its global influence across trade, investment, geopolitics, and international institutions.
Overall, the World Economic League Table 2026 paints a clear picture: India’s economic ascent is set to continue, driven by long-term structural strengths rather than temporary factors, positioning the country as one of the defining forces in the global economy over the next two decades.
