New Delhi, Oct 1 (UNI) India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said that normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over many parts of central and southern peninsular India, as well as some areas of northeast India, from October to December.
The IMD also forecast above-normal temperatures across most parts of the country during October.
“In October, above normal maximum temperatures are likely over many parts of India except some parts of central India and adjoining south peninsula where normal to below normal maximum temperatures are likely,” the IMD said.
Addressing a virtual press conference on the 2024 Southwest Monsoon season, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said, “The rainfall averaged over South Peninsular India during the post-monsoon (northeast monsoon) season from October to December is most likely to be above normal, covering five meteorological subdivisions — Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and south interior Karnataka.
“Above normal rainfall is also likely in several parts of central India and some areas in northeast India. However, most parts of northwest India and some parts of northeast India and southernmost parts of India are likely to receive below normal rainfall,” the IMD added.
As per the IMD forecast, the overall rainfall in the country during the 2024 Southwest Monsoon season (June-September) was 108% of its long-period average (LPA), indicating that seasonal rainfall was above normal ( >104% of LPA).
“Seasonal rainfalls over northwest India, central India, the south peninsula, and northeast India were recorded at 107%, 119%, 114%, and 86% of their respective LPA. The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which includes most of the rain-fed agricultural regions in the country, received 122% of LPA,” the IMD said.
“Out of a total of 36 meteorological subdivisions, 2 subdivisions received large excess rainfall (9% of the total area), 10 subdivisions constituting 26% of the total area received excess rainfall, 21 subdivisions received normal rainfall (54% of the total area), and 3 subdivisions (11% of the total area) received deficient seasonal rainfall,” the IMD said, adding that the subdivisions with deficient rainfall were Arunachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh.
“The most notable feature of rainfall distribution during September was the large excess rainfall over west Uttar Pradesh, west Madhya Pradesh, the Gujarat region, and Telangana, whereas there was large deficient rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and the Karaikal region. Regionally, northwest India (129% of LPA) and central India (132% of LPA) experienced excess rainfall, while east and northeast India (102% of LPA) received deficient rainfall, and the south peninsula (97% of LPA) received normal rainfall,” the IMD added.
In August, Saurashtra & Kutch, East & West Rajasthan, and Lakshadweep received large excess rainfall. Northwest India (130% of LPA) and central India (116% of LPA) experienced excess rainfall, while east and northeast India (102% of LPA) and the south peninsula (107% of LPA) received normal rainfall, it noted.
In July, significant spatial variability was recorded over central India, with excess rainfall in 7 subdivisions and normal rainfall in 3 out of a total of 10 subdivisions. In June, the south peninsula recorded excess rainfall in 5 subdivisions, normal rainfall in 4, and deficient rainfall in 1 out of the 10 subdivisions, the IMD added.
It further said, “The southwest monsoon advanced over the south Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands on 19 May 2024, nearly two days before the normal date. It set in over Kerala on 30 May 2024, against the normal date of 1 June, and covered the entire country by 2 July 2024, against the normal date of 8 July.”
“Monsoon withdrawal commenced from west Rajasthan on 23 September, which was a delay of 6 days,” the IMD said, adding that the forecast for monsoon onset over Kerala this year was accurate, marking the nineteenth consecutive correct forecast for this event since the commencement of this forecast in 2005, except for the year 2015.
