New Delhi, Dec 4 (UNI) The World Gold Council (WGC) on Thursday said the gold prices can rise between 15-30 per cent in the calendar year 2026 from the current levels.
In the Calendar Year 2025, gold prices have surged around 53 per cent as investors rushed to the safety of gold in the backdrop of US tariffs and geopolitical concerns.
The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) purchase of gold and their moves on interest rates also shape gold’s price trajectory.
“The combination of falling yields, elevated geopolitical stress and a pronounced flight-to-safety would create exceptionally strong tailwinds for gold, supporting a sharp move higher. Under this scenario gold could surge 15-30 per cent in 2026 from current levels,” the WGC report said.
Investment demand, particularly via gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) would remain a key driver, offsetting weakness in other areas of the market, such as jewellery or technology.
According to the WCG data, the global gold ETFs have seen USD 77 billion of inflows so far in CY25 adding over 700 tonnes to their holdings.
“Even if we move the starting point back further to May 2024, collective gold ETF holdings are up by approximately 850 tonnes. This figure is less than half of what we have seen in previous gold bull cycles leaving ample room for growth,” the report added. Gold prices can slip 5-20 per cent in CY26 for that to happen, it said.
“Under these conditions, reflation likely takes hold, pushing activity higher and lifting global growth toward a firmer trajectory. As inflation pressures mount, the Fed would be forced to hold or even hike rates in 2026,” WGC cautioned. This in turn, would push long-term yields higher and strengthen the US dollar.
“The rise in yields and a firmer currency increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and draw capital back toward US assets. Improving economic sentiment would also fuel a broad risk-on rotation,” WGC highlighted.
Rising yields, a stronger dollar, and the shift toward risk-on positioning could weigh heavily on gold prices, prompting a notable withdrawal of investor interest.
“With hedges unwound and retail demand softening, the backdrop turns decidedly negative, resulting in a gold price correction of between 5-20 per cent from the current levels,” WGC said.
