Naem Nizam
New Delhi, Dec 31 (UNI) Bangladesh is moving toward an election amidst unprecedented instability across four key domains: politics, the economy, law and order, and international relations, even as a former prime minister of the country Begum Khaleda Zia is being buried next to her husband and former military ruler, Gen Zia Ur Rahman.
That itself should provide a clue to the way Bangladesh has alternated between bouts of democracy and military rule, between instability and progress in her 54 years of existence as a nation state.
Questions surrounding the electoral environment, the rule of law, and political trust have resurfaced strongly.
At the same time, concerns persist over whether stability can truly return if, as in the past, a major political force remains excluded from the electoral process. Meanwhile, parties participating in the election are attempting to create surprises by consolidating their respective power bases.
International attention is now firmly fixed on Bangladesh’s political trajectory, particularly given the country’s growing geopolitical importance.
Since August 2024, Bangladesh has been experiencing sustained turbulence. The interim ruling government has failed to improve the overall situation; instead, complexities created under its watch have heightened anxiety both domestically and internationally.
Doubts over the electoral environment persist. If government missteps further undermine voting conditions and result in a non-participatory election, regional geopolitics will suffer, and positive international linkages will be further strained.
Already, errors by those in power have begun to exert long-term destabilizing effects on supply chains and economic cooperation.
Observers note that the ruling authorities’ strategy of maintaining control through mob mobilisation has seriously undermined the rule of law, media freedom, and respect for dissent.
In this harsh reality, allegations of organised attacks against dissenters and religious minorities have emerged. Incidents of mob violence, arson attacks on media offices, detention of journalists, and political violence have made the situation increasingly alarming.
Simultaneously, recurring distrust and suspicion within political parties themselves have weakened prospects for political stability and raised fresh doubts about the possibility of a neutral, participatory election.
While noting the costant refrain of “peace” made by Begum Zia’s sonand political heir Tarique Rahman in his first speech on Bangladesh’s soil after 17 years, one can only hope that he and others are able to ensure that the attacks and mobocracy can be stemmed.
Although the Election Commission has stated that it will conduct the election as neutrally as possible, it has also acknowledged that the upcoming vote will not be fully participatory. In practice, electoral competition is expected to remain largely confined to the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami.
Notably, these two parties had been allies during the anti-–Sheikh Hasina movement over the past 16 years, operating within the same political bloc. Today, however, they stand as rivals in the struggle for power.
Analysts believe the coming period will be decisive for Bangladesh’s democratic and institutional future, while also presenting formidable challenges in stabilising the economy.
Political instability has damaged the economy and subjected businesses to persistent harassment. Instability is never business-friendly; it prevents economic momentum from returning.
Consequently, demands for a credible and participatory election have grown stronger. Repeating past political mistakes regarding electoral exclusion risks intensifying, rather than easing, the political crisis, potentially reigniting violent politics and increasing challenges for whoever assumes power.
The hard reality is that Bangladesh has remained trapped in violent politics for the past fourteen months. Political parties and segments of civil society are now openly questioning governance, accountability, and institutional neutrality.
Violence, destructive political programs, and mob movements have generated deep public anxiety about the possibility of a fair vote.
Analysts argue that the current crisis is not merely the result of partisan rivalry but rather the outcome of prolonged political polarization and the gradual weakening of democratic institutions.
Over time, public trust in state institutions has eroded to a critical low. Political discourse has become dominated by blame and rhetoric, with little visible change beyond efforts to neutralize opponents. Many believe the crisis can only be resolved politically, through no other means.
Amid this uncertainty, the return of Khaleda Zia’s son, Tarique Rahman, has generated a degree of hope. A major political leader, Tarique Rahman, returned to Bangladesh at a critical juncture. His mother, Begum Khaleda Zia, served as Prime Minister, and his father, Ziaur Rahman, was President and a freedom fighter.
On the day of his return, massive crowds gathered in Dhaka, with the BNP staging a large show of strength. Tarique delivered a structured 17-minute speech, notably refraining from attacking opponents.
At a time when anti-India rhetoric has become fashionable in Bangladeshi politics, he avoided that path. He did not insult dissenters, mention the Awami League, utter Sheikh Hasina’s name, or use the term “fascist.” Instead, he spoke of his vision and plans for the future, emphasizing a return to positive political culture.
Many view both his speech and his return as positive signs for Bangladesh’s overall political environment, likened to brief relief, “like a light shower on scorching sand.” How long that relief lasts remains to be seen.
Tarique Rahman’s immediate challenge is ensuring the upcoming election takes place. Beyond that lie even greater challenges: steering politics away from violence, ending mob terror against opponents, restoring the rule of law, stabilizing the economy, ending attacks on the media, and withdrawing false cases against journalists.
Anxious business leaders are watching closely, hoping for a pathway toward stability. After 17 years of exile in London marked by legal harassment, both against him and his party, Tarique now faces an arduous road ahead.
Whether he can move beyond past animosities and build a peaceful future remains an open question. His close associates claim he has changed and is now focused on the country’s well-being, though the Awami League and many others remains deeply skeptical.
Meanwhile, Tarique Rahman’s return has unsettled Jamaat-e-Islami. Jamaat had assumed that with Sheikh Hasina gone and Khaleda Zia ill, it would have an open field electorally, an assumption now dashed.
At the same time, the student-led party NCP, which played a role in mobilisations against the Awami League, has aligned itself with Jamaat, confirming earlier allegations of Islamist affiliation. Some NCP women leaders have resigned in protest.
Small, state-backed “king’s parties” and organszations are also uneasy, fearing the end of the mob culture that had previously enjoyed state patronage.
Following attacks on Prothom Alo and The Daily Star, the state appears to have realised that the “Frankenstein monster” of mob violence spares no one—not even its creator.
The delayed effort to rein in mob violence has already exacted a devastating toll over the past fourteen months. Had action been taken earlier, widespread deaths, arson, and chaos might have been avoided.
The brutal killing of minority youth Dipu Das in Mymensingh, handed over by police to a mob on false charges of religious provocation, was not an isolated incident, but part of a grim continuum that began with the lynching and burning of police officers and escalated into thousands of crimes.
Ordinary citizens no longer want to see a Bangladesh consumed by mob terror. The nation stands at a crossroads: whether it moves toward political reconciliation and institutional reform, or sinks into prolonged instability, depends on how political actors navigate this transition.
Analysts stress that restoring public trust requires not only economic stabilization but also visible progress toward inclusive, rules-based political processes. A participatory election could pave the way for democratic renewal; otherwise, conflict will persist, and complexities will deepen.
Inflation, pressure on foreign exchange reserves, and slow job growth are already worsening living conditions—especially for urban youth.
Economists warn that prolonged political instability will erode investor confidence and harm exports. Leading business figures express unprecedented frustration, arguing that political normalization and restored legitimacy are essential for recovery.
International concern is also growing over civil rights and minority security. Shrinking civic space and communal tensions threaten Bangladesh’s pluralistic image. Sustainable stability will only emerge when all segments of society feel included within the state.
The upcoming national election will be the ultimate test. A credible, participatory, and transparent vote could restore trust; a disputed one could push the country toward deeper division.
While excluding one party may seem expedient in the short term, the reality is that the Awami League—ousted in the mass uprising, still commands roughly 35 percent public support. Excluding such a large constituency cannot deliver lasting stability.
Justice must be served for corruption and wrongdoing, but ordinary supporters should not be stripped of voting rights for their leaders’ crimes. These unresolved questions loom large as Bangladesh heads toward the polls.
Most Bangladeshis want elections to take place, alongside an inclusive vote that ensures long-term peace. The people must be allowed to decide.
There is no alternative to transparent elections, an independent judiciary, a free media, and an accountable state.
If Bangladesh is to change, politicians must change first.
(The writer is a former Editor of Bangladesh Pratidin. Views are personal)
