New Delhi, Mar 5 (UNI) If the geopolitical uncertainties in middle east persist or escalate, there could be an adverse impact on sectors such as basmati rice, fertilisers, diamond polishing, travel operators and airlines, warned a Crisil report released here on Thursday.
The report said sectors like ceramics and fertilisers with high-dependence on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) could see a near-term production impact. Moreover, crude-linked sectors such as downstream oil refiners, tyres, paints, specialty chemicals, flexible packaging, and synthetic textiles could be affected.
Crisil noted that countries in the Middle East account for 30 pc of global crude oil and 20 pc of global LNG production, and the majority of this is transported through the Strait of Hormuz.
India imports 85 pc of its crude oil and half of its LNG requirements, and out of this 40-50pc crude oil and 50-60pc of LNG are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.
The report said that most shipping vessels have stopped sailing on this route since March 1 due to increased risk of passage and any prolonged disruption of this trade route will have a bearing on global crude oil and LNG availability.
Crisil noted that the price of Brent Crude has already surged to around USD 82-84 per barrel (bbl) from an average of USD 66-67 during Jan-Feb 2026.
For Asian spot LNG, price has also flared up from USD 10/MMBtu to USD 24-25/MMBtu, and a further surge world effect India’s Current Account Deficit (CAD) and lead to a rise in inflation.
Highlighting the impacts sectorally, the report noted that India’s basmati rice exports, nearly 70–72 per cent of which go to the Middle East, may face shipment delays and slower payments.
The fertiliser sector could see supply disruptions and higher prices as about 40 per cent of India’s fertiliser imports come from the region, potentially increasing the government’s subsidy burden.
The diamond industry may also face trade challenges since Israel and the UAE account for about 18 per cent of India’s diamond exports, though alternative hubs like Belgium and Hong Kong could provide some relief.
Indian airlines may incur higher fuel costs due to airspace restrictions and longer routes, while travel operators could see cancellations and slower bookings for Middle East destinations.
Industries such as ceramics, paints, tyres, flexible packaging, and synthetic textiles may experience margin pressure due to rising crude-linked input costs. However, upstream oil producers and shipping companies could benefit from higher crude prices and rising freight rates amid disruptions in global shipping routes.
Crisil also noted that Red Sea route via the Suez Canal is another critical shipping lane in Middle East which is extensively used for global merchandise and crude oil trade connecting Asia with Europe, North America and North Africa.
Crisil warned that any major disruption to this shipping route, as a potential domino effect of the conflict, could further impact crude oil prices and shipping time.
