State Pulse: Uttar Pradesh: BSP rattled by low voting percentage

For many in UP, Mayawati's sarva samaj politics has come as a deviation from the core ideology of BSP. The Dalit discontent over the social engineering mantra of Mayawati is beginning to find vocal expression, opines Vikas Saraswat
With the last round of Lok Sabha elections completed, some broad trends emerging from Uttar Pradesh indicate chiefly towards a significant reduction in the elected members for Samajwadi Party, a less than expected surge in the BSP fortunes and major improvement in the position of Congress and BJP. The latter, particularly, in alliance with Ajit Singh's RLD is expected to greatly improve its standing in Western Uttar Pradesh. BJP is also expected to improve its showing in Rohilkhand and Poorvanchal.
But one major story from Uttar Pradesh which has gone largely unreported is the growing apathy of Dalit voters towards Bahujan Samaj Party. A look at the decline in voting percentages in the traditional BSP strongholds of Agra area suggests that the Dalit voter who has stood like a rock behind BSP for the last two decades is showing signs of indifference if not outright disillusionment in some measure.
Booth number 58 at Tehri Baghiya under Etmadpur assembly of Agra (reserved) Lok Sabha seat, a traditional stronghold of BSP, recorded a mere voting percentage of 27.37%. In Naraich area of the same assembly segment, booth number 67 again recorded a lowly 29.17% votes. At booth number 84 the voter turnout was still less at 27.20%. Here at booth numbers 81, 82 and 83 the voting percentage could not even cross the 25% mark. Significantly the average voting percentage at these three booths in the last assembly elections was above 42%. At Nunihai booth number 126 the percentage was 24.32%. In Agra South assembly segment two polling booths in Bodla area, again a stronghold of BSP, recorded a dismal voting percentage of 27%. At Nagla Burhi in the Agra North assembly segment, which has a predominance of Jatav voters, the percentage was an abysmal 17.20%.
BSP is clearly rattled by these shockingly low voting percentages in its strongholds particularly when its voters have a reputation for voting in large numbers. Compounding the worries of the incumbent party is the high voting percentages recorded in posh localities such as Kamla Nagar, Balkeshwar, Gandhi Nagar and Vijay Nagar considered as BJP strongholds. The polling booths in these areas which have a history of low to medium voter turnouts saw a fairly high voter turnout this time.
The same story has been repeated in the adjoining Fatehpur Sikri Lok Sabha seat as well. Although the disillusionment of the core BSP voters is not as marked in the Fatehpur Sikri Lok Sabha constituency, the highest voting percentages throughout the five assembly segments of this constituency have been recorded in upper caste and OBC strongholds.
BSP, which has eight sitting MLAs out of the ten assembly seats falling in these two Lok Sabha constituencies, is finding the going very tough. The low voting percentages in Dalit dominated areas in the Agra (reserved) seat are expected to seriously harm the prospects of Kunvar Chand, the BSP candidate who is locked in a key contest with BJP's Dr. Ramshankar Katheriya. Similarly thanks to the lukewarm response of Dalit voters in the neighbouring Fatehpur Sikri constituency, Mrs. Seema Upadhyay, the BSP candidate who till the election eve was being considered in the main fray seems to be out of reckoning. The contest seems to have narrowed between Raj Babbar of Congress and Raja Aridaman Singh of BJP. Mrs. Upadhyay, wife of high profile Brahmin leader and Minister for electricity in Mayawati cabinet is reported to have received undisputed support from the Brahmin community but seems to have lost out on the usual enthusiasm of the Dalit voters for BSP on which she was banking heavily.
For many in this part of UP, Ms. Mayawati's sarva samaj politics has come as a deviation from the core ideology of BSP. The Dalit discontent over the social engineering mantra of Mayawati is beginning to find vocal expression. Sobaran Singh a Jatav, working in a shoe factory is clearly disillusioned with the performance of Mayawati Government. Nothing has changed for us. It is the same Brahman, Baniyas and Thakurs who are calling the shots. Rajendra Kumar, associated with BSP and DS4 before that, echos the sentiments. He says that the interests of sarva samaj and Bahujan samaj are at odds and Ms. Mayawati's politics of wooing the upper castes has done irreparable damage to the movement initiated by Kashiram. The extent of Dalit apathy towards the BSP and the consequent damages to its electoral prospects will only be known after May 16 but if the trends in Agra are anything to go by, the chinks in the BSP armour have already been exposed.