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10:41 pm - Saturday July 26, 2014

Growth rate in 2014-15 likely to be between 5.4 and 5.9 pc

BUDGET TEAMAgencies, New Delhi
The Economic Survey tabled in Parliament today pegged economy’s growth rate between 5.4 to 5.9 per cent in 2014-15 overcoming the sub-5 per cent growth of Gross Domestic  Product (GDP) witnessed over the past two years.

The growth slowdown in the past two years was broad based, affecting in particular the industry sector. Inflation too declined during this period, but continued to be above the comfort zone, owing primarily to the elevated level of food inflation.

The Economic Survey 2014-15, presented by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in Parliament predicts that moderation in inflation would ease the monetary policy stance and revive the confidence of investors, and with the global economy expected to recover moderately, particularly on account of performance in some advanced economies, the economy can look forward to better growth prospects in 2014-15 and beyond.
The survey also points out at the downside risks to the economy arising from a poor monsoon, the external environment and the poor investment climate. After recovering in 2009-10 and 2010-11 from the crisis and growth slowdown of 2008-09, GDP growth slowed to below 5 per cent for two consecutive years, i e 2012-13 and 2013-14.

The survey notes that external sector witnessed a remarkable turnaround after the first quarter of 2013-14 and the year ended with a Current Account Deficit of 1.7 per cent of GDP as against 4.7 per cent in 2012-13.  Improvement is also observed on the fiscal front, with the fiscal deficit declining from 5.7 per cent of GDP in 2011-12 to 4.9 per cent in 2012-13 and 4.5 per cent in 2013-14. Aided by a favourable monsoon, the agriculture and allied sectors achieved a growth of 4.7 per cent in 2013-14 compared to its long term average of around 3 per cent (between 1999-2000 and 2012-13).

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