During his recent Washington visit, Pakistan's newly-elected President Asif Ali Zardari made a firm commitment to sincerely fight terrorism before President George Bush and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Both are taking him at his word, since after assuming the Presidency he had listed fighting terrorism and religious extremism and reviving Pakistan's economy as the principal tasks before the PPP-led coalition government.
He also exuded a good deal of optimism about the future of India-Pakistan relations and stressed the need to achieve a breakthrough, leaving behind a bitter past.
No one should doubt the sincerity of Mr. Zardari's resolve and he needs to be given reasonable time to prove himself, and also a helping hand to stabilize himself and his country. He is not oblivious of the fact that Pakistan has been ruled by Generals for a long time, who were obsessed with a military mindset, were perpetually at war with India, promoted militarism and terrified the Pakistanis into believing that the Armed Forces should remain strong and dominant in order to protect the country's territorial integrity.
The brief civilian governments remained subservient to the Army, never crossing its path or questioning its perks and arms acquisition by legal, as well as, illegal means.
Gen Pervez Musharraf departed from the scene only a few months ago and the Army has made a tactical retreat from politics. But, behind the scene, it still guides the Government's actions, takes the lead in issuing statements concerning external relations and itself decides how to fight terror. When Zardari made some conciliatory reference to India before he became President, the Army Chief Gen Kayani repudiated him by saying before that the Army had its own stand on Kashmir.
Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani was also made to say whatever former President Musharraf might have said or done on Kashmir was invalid as it was without Parliament's backing.
Now Mr. Zardari has come into his own and he can pursue a policy of peace and reconciliation and also ensure that the Army fully cooperates in the war on terror and does not only make a pretence of doing so by exaggerating its claims and action through the media, which has no direct access to the scene of fighting in the tribal areas.
It is known that Taliban and Al Qaeda insurgencies are burgeoning in both Afghanistan and Pakistan's tribal areas and the two terror groups pose equal threats to Afghanistan and the rest of the world including India. But the United States is frustrated at the Pakistan Army's reluctance to wage all-out war against the threat and has conducted a spate of missile strikes in the frontier area inside Pakistan, killing some terrorists, as well as, civilians.
After protesting against violation of Pakistan's sovereignty, the Army has reluctantly moved into action in Bajaur and other areas, but it is reluctant to abandon its jehadist proxies. The question has often been asked why Pakistan has captured more fugitive Al Qaeda leaders than the Taliban, its clients. The contradiction in its policy shows at time when the Pakistan Army is engaged in fighting insurgency in the tribal areas.
The Army's notorious Inter Services Intelligence, about whose dubious and unhelpful role even the United State has publicly spoken, seems to be pursuing a "selective" policy of calming down Taliban at home but still employing them for missions in Afghanistan. Even the attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul was the work of the same Taliban led by Jalaluddin Haqqani, long known as an ISI "agent".
Even the US went public with this accusation and now President Zardari has assumred Dr. Manmohan Singh that a joint investigation would be conducted into the incident. Even while conducting its operations in the tribal areas, the Army is reluctant to attack Afghan Taliban who are led from Peshawar in NWFP and Quetta in Balochistan for fear of worsening the security situation in these troubled provinces.
The second, and the most important problem has been the reluctance on the part of the radicalized section of the Pakistani Army to take action against the Islamists who are fighting "infidel" America. Gen Musharraf may have kept them on leash and neutralized them partly but, with his departure and Gen Kayani's takeover, they are again coming into their own.
In the past few months hundreds of radicalized Pakistani soldiers surrendered to the Taliban in the frontier area, refusing to fight them, thereby jeopardizing the drive against terrorists.
Incidents of Pakistani security personnel being blown up by landmines in Balochistan have been increasing lately, suggesting resurgence of Baloch resistance to Islamabad's rule. Washington believes that, as the leader of the biggest political party which is leading the ruling coalition, Mr. Zardari is better placed than Pervez Musharraf to try to galvanize popular support for taking on the extremists.
He has promised to hold a debate in parliament to forge a consensus on a national anti-terrorism policy. After the Marriot Hotel Blast in Islamabad, he reiterated his determination to rid Pakistan of the "cancer" of terrorism. But there is little he can do to make the regional strategy of the United States popular.
President Bush once again promised to "help" Pakistan to fight terror, an offer he cannot afford to reject, considering the strong military ties Pakistan has had with the US since its very existence as an independent state.
But, the general belief is that he is too weak to take on pro-Taliban hardliners in the Pakistan Army. The PPP-led government in Pakistan had tried to discipline Inter - Services Intelligence by bringing it under the administrative control of the Interior Ministry.
The move was opposed by the Army and the Government was forced to cancel the order. Mr. Zardari has, once again, said that the ISI will be "handled", that was his problem. "We do not hunt with the hound and run with the hare, which is what Gen. Musharraf was doing".
Maybe under US pressure, Army Chief Kayani has now made several changes in leadership of the Army and replaced Lt-Gen Nadeem Taj by Lt-Gen Ahmed Shujaa Pasha as ISI chief.
Gen Taj was a close Musharraf aide and was appointed by him; but remained in the post for less than a year. This may be yet another step towards reorganizing the Army command by Gen. Kayani -- himself a former ISI chief -- and consolidate his control over the force, which was packed with Musharraf loyalists.
Whether he will deliver on Zardari's commitment to eradicate extremism and terrorism from Pakistani soil remains to be seen. Gen Pasha oversaw the military offensive against the Taliban and Al Qaeda in the North West Frontier Province, particular in Bajaur which is the scene of fighting lately. He also commanded troops for the UN mission to Sierra Leone in 2001 - 2002 and was appointed as adviser on peacekeeping operations.
He may now become incommunicado as head of the military's spy agency, but at a media briefing last November Gen Pasha acknowledged the price Pakistan was paying for its past association with radical Islamists.
Referring, presumably, to Gen Zia-ul-Haq's role in promoting radical Islam in Pakistan, Gen Pasha maintained that millions of dollars had been "pumped in for establishing it, and now we are up against it" Pakistan intelligence had created the Taliban militia, which was then sent across to Afghanistan and take it over.
Gen Kayani was told by the US in clear terms that rogue elements in the ISI continued to train and aid Taliban fighters for use in Afghanistan and retain them as assets for use against India. Gen Pasha's new job will be Pivotal in joint US-Pakistani efforts to locate Osama Bin Laden and his number two Ayman-al-Zawahiri.
He said that it was "anyone's guess" where Bin Laden was hiding, adding that "Osama is mystery". However US Gen David Petraeus predicts that the conflict in Afghanistan will intensify in the coming months, as US and NATO allies aggressively take on Taliban fighters who were gaining in strength, and demanded more troops.
The Army claims to have killed over 700 militants in Bajaur alone. In South Waziristan, it says among those killed were 250 Uzbek extremists. But many locals who include some 300,000 diaplaced by the fighting, accuse the Army of killing civilians to boost the headcount and often behaving no better than the militants.
A local member of the NWFP provincial Assembly said there was a perception that "the government and the militants are the same". The US, and indeed, the world expects a U-turn in ISI's support for the Taliban and hopes President Zardari will persuade the Army Chief kayani to conduct the anti-terror operations with dedication and sincerity. -NPA
MK Dhar
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