External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee's visit to Islamabad has come at a time when there was a strong resentment in India against Pakistan, believed to be fostering, abetting and inciting terrorist violence against its eastern neighbour. This was because of the Jaipur serial blasts which claimed about 70 innocent lives and repeated bids of infiltration in Jammu and Kashmir and at least three major violations of the cease fire on Indo-Pak Border. In fact voices were being raised that India should call off the visit would not serve any purpose.

New Delhi did lodge a strong protest with Islamabad on the situation on the borders but displayed maturity in not calling off the visit. This is vindicated by the results that have flown from the talks between Mr. Mukherjee and his Pakistani counterpart Shah Mohammad Qureshi. "We discussed a lot of new ideas. We must now find out how to implement these ideas", the external affairs minister said on his return home.

Expectedly, the two countries reiterated that they would jointly fight against terrorism which, Pakistan now admits, is a menace for both countries. It was also emphasized that the Joint Anti-terror Mechanism would be activated. Pakistan has assured India that it will continue to respect the 5-year-old ceasefire, which witnessed major violations in the last fortnight. It was pointed out that strengthening of economic relations could go hand in hand with other issues and CBM's would continue to be pursued to raise the level of trust and confidence among the people of the two countries. Substantial progress has been achieved on other issues like Siachen and Sir Creek. An agreement was signed to allow consular access to the prisoners held in each other's country.

In a significant change of attitude, Pranab Mukherjee's economic approach has found favour with Pakistan's new leadership. A day after his meeting with the Indian Minister, Asif Ali Zardari, who is the driving force behind Pakistan's ruling coalition, proposed creating economic zones along the border which would be owned by people of both sides. All this speaks of positive results flowing from the foreign minister level talks. It highlights the realisation that success of composite dialogue is the key to a better future not only for the two countries but the whole region.

Questions unanswered

The question that arises, nevertheless, is if Pakistan is keen to let the peace process move forward, why renewed efforts of infiltration and repeated cease-fire violations are taking place. Could it be that the Pakistani Army wants to demonstrate that it continues to be the real power center in the country despite a civil government being in position? Are some Agencies in Pakistan, like the ISI, working at cross purposes with the government with the objective of derailing the peace process?

Some Indian commentators tend to believe and project ISI as some sort of a rogue element or a loose canon ball with no fixed trajectory. It is too simplistic a view of a very complex phenomenon which is ISI. One should not lose sight of the reality that ISI is mostly manned and led by serving army officers. So much so its ethos and mandate cannot be different from the regular army though it can be said that it's short to medium term goals are always different from other Pak agencies.

Put differently, under successive regimes, Pakistan has adopted two-track approach towards India. How different the present government which is a duly elected representative voice of the people, will be? We have to wait and watch. Any how, no miracles can be expected in the near term. Even when Mr Mukherjee was in Islamabad, the Gillani government was pre-occupied with domestic issues like constitutional package and reinstatement of judges sacked by President Musharraf last year.

Subsequent developments show that People's Party of Pakistan (PPP) leadership is de-linking itself from Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) on the twin issues of Musharraf's impeachment and the judges' issue. While firing at General (retired) Musharraf on all cylinders in the public, Asif Ali Zardari and his colleagues have quietly prepared the ground for co-habitation with the President. At least for the present. It is immaterial whether it is a suo moto decision or under American pressure.

If some frost appears in Indo-Pak relations, it would not come as a surprise. Neither Zardari nor any of his colleagues will be willing to appear to have become soft on Kashmir in particular. They will be heard mouthing the usual Kash rhetoric. Already army chief General Kiyani declared he is "committed to the Kashmir issue". And the Pak foreign minister revived the 'relevance' of long forgotten UN resolutions.

Against this backdrop one can apprehend increase in infiltration bids in Jammu and Kashmir in the days ahead because of the Amarnath Yatra scheduled from June 18 and the state getting closer to the elections by September or October this year. Already 1200 militants are said to be active in Jammu and Kashmir and about 2000 more are waiting to cross over from POK.

Frankly, India will have to wait with patience till things settle down in Islamabad. There is no bigger CBM than dialogue. But the dialogue itself can be successful if there is mutual trust and confidence. That is what the whole exercise of talking to each other is all about.

--Syndicate Features