Although invisible hands worked overtime to ensure that the Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi was deployed only in inconspicuous taluk towns rather than the big cities of Karnataka, especially Bangalore, it was the Gujarat example that won the hearts of voters in Karnataka. No, not "hardline Hindutva", but development.

Numerous voters had either experienced or heard about the stunning transformation of the western State by policies designed by Modi, and they wanted a repeat in Karnataka. Especially since Veerendra Patil was thrown out of the Chief Minister's post by the Congress Party 16 years ago (for refusing to play "money politics"), the State has seen its administration decline.

All that politicians in Karnataka have been interested in is money, and judging by the financial returns that the more prominent have filed before the Election Commission they have made plenty. Whether it is the family of the Congress Party's SM Krishna or Dharam Singh, or the Janata Dal (Secular)'s HD Kumaraswamy, none can be accused of simple living. They have it, and they flaunt it, indulging in a passion for expensive cars, houses and other requisites of the good life.

Given its educationally advanced population, Karnataka should do at least as well as Gujarat, were it to get a Government that is reasonably effective. Although the minorities--influenced by the shrill anti-BJP rhetoric from the UPA--avoided the BJP, yet the Party secured enough votes to get almost to the halfway mark in the 224-member Assembly.

Should the others combine to bring it down, there is little doubt that in the ensuing polls, the BJP would shoot well past the halfway mark. The Congress and the JD(S) are aware of this, and hence will temper their instinct for mischief, at least till they perceive that the public mood has changed. An unlikely event, so long as a hapless UPA wallows in the muck of price rise, regressive taxation and administrative incompetence.

For the Congress Party, all that counts is how effective its Chief Ministers are in raising funds for the Party (defined in various creative ways), which is why obvious disasters such as Maharashtra's Vilasrao Deshmukh continue to make their hefty contributions, not simply to the Party treasury, but to its decline. In Karnataka as well, the "too little too late" style of functioning that is associated with Sonia Gandhi, has been in evidence.

For example, at the last minute, SM Krishna was sent back to Karnataka from the comforts of Mumbai's Raj Bhavan. However, his effectiveness as a Vokkaliga mascot was undercut by refusing to field him as a candidate, thus dousing hopes within his community that he would stage a comeback.

Krishna's entry cast a shadow over PCC Chief Mallikarjun Kharge, thus leading Dalits to question whether their man would finally make it to the top spot, even if the Congress Party won. Many voted for the BJP, and a surprisingly low number voted for the BSP, which was led in the state by a Rajput, PGR Scindia. Had the BSP attracted more Dalit voters, the Congress tally would have tumbled to 60 from 80, and that of the BJP risen to 120

The Karnataka voters have punished most Congress and JD(S) veterans who ruled them for decades. Former Chief Ministers Dharam Singh and Sarekoppa Bangarappa lost, as did numerous other stalwarts, most from the Congress Party. Although Deve Gowda's two sons got elected, the flip-flop of the father has cost the family much goodwill in the State, where they are now seen as an opportunist clan eager to get benefit for themselves from any situation. Only former CM Kumaraswamy still has goodwill, and if he adopts a constructive tone, could yet make a comeback

Unless the JD(S) splits and enough MLAs join hands with the BJP, there is little chance that the present Assembly will last beyond two years. Once the Speaker's election takes place, the majority of the BJP, even with the support of 5 independents, would be razor-thin. While for the first couple of years, the Congress and the JD(S) would be wary of pulling down the BJP, after that period of grace, the knives will be out. For the BJP, only a split in the JD(S) can assure it five years. Another alliance would be ill-advised, as the wily Gouda clan has shown that they can switch sides with practised ease

Should the BJP provide an administration in Karnataka that comes close to the standard set by Narendra Modi, the Party can emerge as the big winner in the coming Lok Sabha elections, securing more than 20 seats from the State. However, for this to happen, the "backseat drivers" from Delhi will need to be kept out, as most of these are solely interested in looking after the interests of their moneybag friends.

Energy and infrastructure have long been neglected in Karnataka, and several projects were placed on hold just because politicians wanted more cash out of them than the promoters were willing (or able) to give. A slew of new projects would help the new Chief Minister, the experienced B S Yeddyurappa; establish himself within the broader electorate.

In Karnataka, the BJP even has the chance of winning over a substantial chunk of the minorities, as most Muslims, for example, are disenchanted with the UPA. After its magnificent win in Karnataka, a result that goes to the credit of the State leaders just as victory in Gujarat was caused by Narendra Modi, the BJP has the chance of working out a platform that can, for the first time, include the minorities. Should the BJP succeed in this, it would be well on the way towards cobbling up a winning combination for the 2009 Lok Sabha polls.

- INFA