Indian options on nuclear deal are fast reaching a dead end as there is no indication of any change of stand either by the left or the opposition that is Bhartiya Janata Party. In the absence of any consensus on the subject, the Government has no option but to allow the same to be put into cold storage as Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee has made it clear that the deal cannot be implemented unless the majority in the Parliament decides to endorse it. This is very unlikely as Left and BJP are not likely to change their stand on the subject.
The statements by former President Prof Kalam and Brijesh Mishra, national security advisor during the NDA regime supporting the nuclear deal have embarrassed the BJP leadership, but that is not likely to lead to any change in their stand. For BJP opposition to deal, though the process was initiated by them provides them with a suitable ploy to exploit differences between the UPA and Left on this subject. The Left, however, has problems because for them any relationship with US is not acceptable.
Under the circumstances, the UPA Government has no option but to accept a defeat as in the absence of early endorsement by International Atomic Energy Authority and Nuclear Supply Group, the US Government will not be able to get the agreement endorsed by US Congress during the present term of President Bush. In the meantime the groups opposed to the deal are becoming active as many countries are not in favour of India getting a special status and would like us to either fall in line with others and sign treaty for non-proliferation of nuclear weapons before getting access to nuclear technology for civilian purposes.
In a single stroke Indian isolation on the issue of nuclear energy will become either permanent or we will have to settle for much less than what was offered to us under the present deal. This sacrifice will imply that for at least one decade India will have to forget any schemes for generation of nuclear power. Even the running of existing plants will become very difficult if not impossible. One hope in future Indian scientists will be able to use Thorium which India has in plenty for generating nuclear power, but this can happen only in distant future. In the current times we will have to depend on either gas or petroleum or coal for generation. The prices of hydrocarbons are touching new heights every day, and coal generation will increase the pollution levels in the country.
More so India which had adopted nuclear route in early sixties will be deprived of a cutting edge technology. Even our friends like Russia and France will also not be able to help us as there are enough indications by them that they will not violate international obligations to help India in the field of nuclear technology in the absence of a deal with US and agreement with IAEA and Nuclear Supply Group.
We would be doing this for the sake of retaining the right to test a nuclear weapon if the need arises. Such tests could have been carried out even if we had signed the agreement, as in the event of such a test becoming necessary we had to hold negotiations with countries which had supplied us material and equipment to explain why such a test was necessary. Our policy to stop further tests was done on our own without any outside pressure as such no new commitment was necessary. But in politics reason or argument have no place and as suggested by Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh no one is prepared to listen to the voice of wisdom 'It is not to suggest that the UPA Government was not at fault as they made the fundamental mistake of pushing the deal as an agreement with United States whereas it was an agreement with large number of countries including members of Nuclear Supply group which has thirty members and nuclear powers like France, Russia and Canada besides U.S.
The country will have to pay a heavy price for this inept handling of the deal by UPA Government and cursedness of the Left parties and BJP led opposition. The BJP may like to take lot of credit for second nuclear test at Pokhran, but they have to accept the fact that the bomb to test was ready and all that they had to do was to pull the trigger. It is also doubtful if the test has made us more secure as our next door neighbor was able to match us immediately and as for China they are far ahead of us in this field.
Left may feel happy that by stopping the deal they have made their Chinese comrades happy, but for BJP it is rather strange company as among the countries which will breathe easy because deal has not been done will be Pakistan which made no secret of the fact that they should be given the same deal as was offered to India. In any case they have China to meet their needs if necessary by giving them material and designs in a clandestine manner.
Brij Bhardwaj, -NPA
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