President George W Bush, accompanied by his Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, arrived in Israel 14 May morning, his first stop on a five-day, three-country Middle East tour that will mix ceremony with substance as he marks the 60th anniversary of Israel's founding while trying to prod along faltering peace talks between the Israelis and Palestinians, and headed to Jerusalem for back-to-back meetings with Israeli Peres and premier Olmert. The trip was long-planned jointly by the Bush administration and Israeli lobby in the USA to coincide with Israel's 60th birthday. Bush, a 100% pro-Israeli strategist himself, does not want to meet the Palestinian leaders during this trip in West Bank or Gaza.

A three-way summit with the Israelis and the Palestinians is not planned during this trip, a sign perhaps of the low expectations of any breakthrough during the visit. Bush went to Ramallah during his first trip to the region in January, and is expected to meet the Palestinian Authority's President Mahmoud Abbas during the last stop of his trip, in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.

The key agenda on Bush's current trip to Mideast is to support Israeli cause in the region by celebrating along with them Israel's 60 anniversary and make some remarks on Hamas. It is also likely that Bush would make some very important announcement on the creation of Palestine state.

The President is also expected to ask King Abdullah to increase OPEC oil production to help lower prices, which have reached a high of $126 a barrel. But the last time Bush made the request, in January, he was rebuffed. Ahead of Bush's trip, a group of Democratic Senators on 13 May threatened to block a multi-million dollar US arms deal with Saudi Arabia, unless the kingdom increases oil production and helps cut soaring gasoline prices. "We are saying that we need real relief, and we need it quickly. You need our arms, but we need you to co-operate and not strangle American consumers."

In addition to his slew of meetings, Bush will sneak in some quick sightseeing here as well. He is scheduled to tour Masada, the ancient fortress overlooking the Dead Sea, and to visit the Bible Lands museum, established in 1992 by an antiquities dealer whose goal was to promote mutual understanding by displaying artifacts that reveal the common origins of Christianity, Judaism and Islam.

Meanwhile, Bush told BBC Arabic television that he was still hopeful that an agreement could be reached that would define the borders of a Palestinian state, and said "we're going to work hard for that end". But many doubt if he could achieve that, given the slow process and a continued pro-Israeli mind-set of US leaders.

In an interview with CBS, Bush said: "What's going to have to happen is that the Palestinians see a state that has got borders and doesn't look like Swiss cheese, continuous territory that is - as well as, obviously going to have to see economic conditions start to improve and security conditions improve. Olmert and Abbas, though committed to the talks, are both weakened leaders who may have a difficult time selling any deal to their people. Despite his support from Bush, Abbas is struggling to provide economic support and security to his constituents in the West Bank, even as he contends with competition from his Hamas rivals in Gaza.

The Bush administration's plans for democracy in the Middle East seem to lie in tatters with moderates on the retreat, and the power of Syria and Iran on the rise. President Bush is in a region that is sinking deeper into turmoil, and where the US influence is at a low ebb. After five years of violence in Iraq and almost a year of Hamas control over Gaza, the latest blow to US policy has come in Beirut, with the violent challenge by Hezbollah to Lebanon's Western-backed government.

Some observers argue that the Bush administration is doing too little, too late in the Middle East, and that there has rarely been a less auspicious moment to push for peace. At the same time, they say, Bush's policy towards the Middle East over the past few years has been active but misguided - from the Iraq invasion to the strategy of sidelining Hamas and talking to only half of the Palestinian people.

Gulf countries are increasingly looking to Asia as a growing and lucrative market. However, there's a sense that the US remains important, the Gulf countries are less willing to do hard things just because they help the US. But as Saudi Arabia, a dominantly Sunni country, watches nervously as events unfold in Lebanon with Shia Iran apparently gaining more power there, the kingdom may well look to the US for more help to counter Iran. But the Saudis are not going to be there for the US in the same way ever again.

At a press conference here on 13 May to unveil a package of economic and security measures for the West Bank, Blair said it would be a "mistake to think" that diplomatic progress can be achieved without improving conditions for ordinary Palestinians.

USA praises Israel, the only nuclear power in the region, as a democratic country because it conducts elections "free and fair" and does not link Israel's destructive policies against its neighbours. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced that progress was being made in talks with the Palestinians, but hopes are thin for an agreement before the end of the year. The US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, who is traveling with the president and has been going to Jerusalem and Ramallah almost every month for the past two years, said that a deal within the next eight months "might be improbable but it's not impossible".

As before, Bush used his interviews to criticize Hamas, the militant Palestinian faction that controls Gaza and opposes recognition of Israel. "Their vision is to destroy Israel," he said it again now and this is how he violates the norms of any worthy peace plan. Such immature statements from a president who wants to bring peace between the warring Israelis and Palestinians looks ridiculous and does not help promote his own stated peace process. Especially when Bush talks like this at the anniversary of Israel while being in Israel does not indicate any real change of mind or policy shift in Washington moving favorably towards Palestine.

Whether or not USA would be able to meet its schedule target of establishing a Palestine by the year end or some time later depends entirely on how President Bush proceeds further with his peace plan along his own route map and how much he can skip advice of pro-Israeli lobbyists and also whether or not he would continue to take tips form his die-hard Neocon colleagues who want to keep the peace process at bay as long as it is convenient and allowed.