The BJP today is sure that the incumbency factor of the present rulers marked by high inflation and ever-rising retail prices will present it the golden opportunity to win the next General Election.
The political class is in turmoil in large parts of India, if not around the world. The meandering upsurge of the youth or new leadership and new Machiavellian practices of a new brand of leaders is playing havoc with established parties, which are losing ground in the hope of survival or gaining new ground. But that does not appear to be happening. The old, as well as the new leaders, are coming up against a wall of deep public discontent and distress, arising from new economic trends and natural calamities, most of them unforeseen and several feared in the face of excessive human activity and cutting down of forests or natural reservoirs absorbing excessive polluting production and devil may care consumerism.
The election time has started and gathering speed and becoming a bit of zing thing. Many established politicians are being shown the door by the rulers or political parties hoping to get into the power business. Those losing office tend to resign their seats in legislatures or Parliament and move to pastures brand new. If a legislature is already dissolved or about to be, there is in any case freedom of movement from one political outfit to another as the anti-defection law holds no fears.
The aya ram gaya ram phenomenon has started in a muted manner will gather force during the rest of the year and reach a breakneck speed in the not very distant future. The blame game is visible. Parties of different hues must re-brand themselves and present not only new faces and new hope. Promise the moon, without having to deliver on it.
The classic case is the Women's Reservation Bill, which seeks to reserve 33 per cent seats in Parliament and legislatures for women. The BJP started the game by reserving 33 per cent positions for women in all party offices across the country. The United Progressive Alliance or UPA picked up the gauntlet by introducing a Bill in the Upper House or Rajya Sabha on what was to turn out to be the last day of the stormy Budget Session of Parliament. A number of parties at the national level joined hands to welcome the measure regardless of their left-right enmity, especially their women leaders outside Parliament House. But this is purely restricted to this issue of women's representation to make some brownie points in the upcoming elections, but several male chauvinist parties operating mainly in UP and Bihar have come out openly against it as the male leadership faces the threat of losing so much of clout. The regional parties in the South have not yet come up with their opposition, but male domination there is no less and some kind of noises could be expected sooner or later. Whether the Bill will be passed in the Monsoon Session of Parliament or not remains to be seen, but it is bound to be stalled, as it has been for a number of years in spite of repeated efforts by the previous National Democratic Alliance and the present alliance before the end of the last century. But having been part of the Common Minimum Programme, the government of the day could take credit for having tried like the proverbial spider even if it does not succeed.
Progress at a clip is costing the nation dear even as it is a worldwide phenomenon. New instruments in the hands of bankers and financial wizards, out to make a fast buck, have hit them in the face with a vengeance they could not visualize as they thought that they had hedged their bets and insured their risks well. What the American super rich did was to spread their potential losses worldwide in the hope of escaping a downslide or near breakdown. That was not to be. They found the laws of diminishing returns came home to roost and they were left with rotten eggs splashed on their faces and even tomatoes literally thrown at them in some places. For all of this, there has been a political price to pay, but politicians are used to entering office and being thrown out of it by turns. If they win successive elections, then they wallow in the glory of sunshine and consider themselves invincible, but sooner or later, they meet with their day of reckoning and hope to revive their fortunes in a distant or not far away future.
The BJP today is sure that the incumbency factor of the present rulers marked by high inflation and ever-rising retail prices will present it the golden opportunity to win the next General Election. It feels that the rising petroleum prices in the international markets and costlier imports of all products and raw materials will build up a well of public anger against the ruler. But, perhaps, it is aware that the same incumbency factor hurts it in the half a dozen States it rules even if it can make some inroads in some new States in the cow belt. Similarly, Ms. Mayawati is certain that she is headed for the Dilli Durbar as her cocktail of Dalit-Brahmin alliance will help it storm many a bastion around the country. But as governance is not her strong point- she lives by loud slogans- she will sooner or later find out that her false promises will not take her very far in the long road to ruling the nation. Where does she have any say in the west, south and eastern India? She prefers to overlook that calculation.
The Communists are hoping to march ahead with a third front, which is moribund, but do they expect to join hands with the scattered Maoists, who have some influence limited to the tribal areas in several States, but nothing to do with the poor farmers who are still the largest constituency in India?
Lalit Sethi, NPA
Print This Page
Terms
and Conditions