Saturday May 10, 2008

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Check population to check inflation 

Managing Inflation has become a bugbear for everyone in this country. The galloping inflation has made the life of ordinary citizen miserable in as much as it has become very difficult to make both ends meet. Prices of foodgrains, oil, milk, vegetables and other essential commodities which constitute an average of more than 50% of the family budget have hit the roof. The situation has become alarming. The main reasons are the fall in agriculture production in the country and all over the world. The Government has adopted various fiscal and monetary measures to curb inflation by restricting exports of essential items and by permitting imports and reducing duties thereon augment the supply. These are only temporary measures. In the short term not much can be done on the supply side. But that is so on the demand side too. Irrespective of inflation, the demand for essential commodities is relatively inelastic and is unlikely to come down at any time in future.

More needs to be done in respect of the demand management. The fact is that India has been a net importer of foodgrains, pulses and oil for many years. While the rate of increase in agriculture production has already reached a plateau, the population growth has been galloping. The thought of the Malthusian theory of Population being applicable to India is a frightening reality. It is an accepted fact that inflationary situation arises when the supply falls short of demand. The strategy therefore calls for effective reduction in the demand for these commodities by addressing the growth of population. Chinese model of adopting one child or two children norm is worth serious consideration and emulation. Not only will this stabilize our population but will solve major problems which we are facing. If China can address such a situation, so can India. It is a question of will!

S Narayan, Mumbai

 

 
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