In this grim scenario, India has temporarily held out a glimmer of hope, that may even be an over-estimated sense of optimism. The country's total food grain production in the 2007-08 crop year is going to be 227.32 million tonnes, about 10 million tonnes more than previous year.
The third week of April 2008 was a very testing time for the world at large and world food programme in particulars surging food prices had widened the World Food Programme funding gap to around US$750 million this year and the UN food aid agency warned it may have to cut rations for hundreds of thousands school children if new donations did not materialize soon.
According to international news agency reports, in February World Food Programme announced it needed extra donations to help cover a $500 million shortfall caused by soaring food and fuel costs and avoid cutting back food aid deliveries in 2008. Since then, costs have shot up even further as tight crop supplies and high food prices intensify hunger, WPF executive director Josette Sheeran has said, bringing the shortfall for this year to $755 million. According to inputs from USA, world prices for rice, wheat, and other staple crops have soared to record highs in recent months. The price the agency pays for rice jumped 70 percent in six weeks. The crop crunch was compounded by high prices of oil - US Crude had hit a record $117 a barrel on April 18 and that made it more expensive to transport food.
WFP sounded a note of caution if not panic when the WFP director said in a speech that the world's misery index is rising. The most vulnerable people in already poor countries, many of them overall food importers, are skipping meals or choosing less nutritious meals for their children. The causes enumerated for this are growing bio-fuel output, rising incomes and poor weather that have been simmering for the last several years but have exploded in the last nine months. Most poor people donot know what hit them, WFP noted.
The WFP has received some responses to its emergency appeal -- the USA in the third week of April announced it would draw about $200 million in wheat and transport costs from a crops trust, much of which will go to WFP -- but it is seeking more support. The Programme is expected to face in the coming months the need to cut at least 4,00,000 children from school feeding. As of now, the Programme has been borrowing from its future plan pipeline in the hope of increased contributions coming in from member groups or countries.
The WFP has run into unusual procurement problems -- it was unable to buy wheat in Asia recently for over two weeks, cutting down of reserves. The agency has been troubled by what appears to be a reduction in new crops plantations by farmers in Africa. There are indications that farmers throughout the world have reduced plantation for grains as crop. In Kenya for example, the price of inputs like fertilizer have shot up by =35 per cent in the last three months. Taking the example of Keynian farmers it is pointed out that they are in subsistence model, withdrawing from the market until things stabilize. This could indicate serious shortages in upcoming harvests.
The WFP bosses stress that global leaders like UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and World Bank President Robert Zoellick are calling for urgent coordinated steps to address the food crisis.
In this grim scenario, India has temporarily held out a glimmer of hope, that may even be an over-estimated sense of optimism. The Agriculture Ministry has indicated that the country's total food grain production in the 2007-08 crop year is going to be 227.32 million tonnes, about 10 million tonnes more than what was achieved in the previous year. Releasing the third advance estimates for 2007-08, Agriculture and Cooperation Sector secretary P.K. Mishra has said the assessment was based on feedback from the states and validated by information from other sources.
Saying that all major crops including wheat, rice and pulses were likely to have an all time record production. Mr. Mishra attributed it to well distributed rainfall and improved weather conditions among other factors. The 2007-08 crop year would take into account standing winter crops including wheat, mustard and paddy to be harvested by may this year. The official said rice production at 95.68 million tonnes was estimated to be an all time high, so would be wheat output at 76.78 million tonnes. Coarse cereals production estimated at 39.67 million tomes and maize at 18.54 million tonnes were also likely to be an all time high.
Pulses production at 15.19 million tonnes and oil seeds output at 26.21 million tonnes were also estimated to touch an all time record. Soyabean production was estimated to be 9.43 million tonnes, while cotton output was likely to be 23.19 million bales of 170kgs each. Production of sugarcane was estimated at 344.23 million tonnes, marginally less than what was recorded last year.
Official, say that the estimates would not only have a sobering effect on the price of food grains but also send a positive signal to the international market as well as traders. What puts the optimism of officials and the government in jeopardy is that fact that farmers, despite their record production of food grains, cash crops and commercial crops are unwilling to part with their produce at the minimum support price offered by government. They, in many cases are expecting a price that is about 40 percent higher, on the plea of higher input costs. As it is in the past six months food grain prices have risen in the below poverty line shops by about 25 percent. The trend is changing after series of anti-hoarding measures.
In the long run, if the Government at the Centre or states may have to raise the minimum procurement prices, as there is a danger that the bumper food crops would go to the private buyers.
While one hopes India will not suffer as much as the developing and poor countries of the world, it remains to be seen whether the state and administration take the right decisions and make the right choices and procurement and Judicious distribution.
Shibani Dasgupta, NPA
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