The Election Commission of Nepal’s announcement of the results of the elections under the proportional system on April 25 provided little solace to the Maoists of Nepal who were hoping for an absolute majority in the 601-member House. Nevertheless, Mr. Prachanda, Chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoists) is still asserting that he would become the Prime Minister of “Naya Nepal evolving after the elections for the Constituent Assembly on April 10.
The hype caused in Indian media since April 11, was based on the initial results of election held under the First Past the Post (FPTP) system that had involved only 240 of the 601 seats in the proposed Constituent Assembly. These hyperbolic writings had given a totally distorted picture of the election scenario with such adjectives as “stupendous”, “sweeping” etc to describe those results.
Ultimately, the Maoists won only 120 of these 240 seats, less than an absolute majority among these 240 seats. Actually, the number of seats won by them would be 119 since Prachanda, who has been elected from Kathmandu 10 and Rolpa 2 constituencies, has to relinquish one.
The real shock for the Maoists came on Friday, when the results of the polls conducted under the proportional representation (PR) system were announced. Of the 335 seats for grab, the Maoists won only 100 seats, polling less than 30 per cent of the votes. Their tally thus became 220 (actually 219), way behind the mid-way number.
On the day of the poll, voters were asked to submit two seats of ballot boxes -one according to the FPTP system and the other according to the PR system .Till April 24, the FPTP system votes were accounted and results officially announced. On April 25, the Election Commission officially announced the results of the votes polled under the PR system.
It has to be remembered that the number of seats for the various parties under the category nomination (26 seats) will be determined sometime later when a new Prime Minister is chosen, because it will be the Prime Minister who will name these 26 members. These 26 members will remove to the extent possible, any imbalance in the representation of the under- privileged sections of the population including the indigenous groups of people. So, not all these seats can go the Maoists.
After April 25, the actual number of seats won by the political parties are :Maoists (219 -119 plus 100); Nepali Congress- 110 ( 37 plus 73); Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist -Leninists -UML) 103 seats (33 plus 70); Madhmeshi People’s Rights Forum 51 (29 plus 22);Terai Madhesh Democratic Party 20 ( 9 plus 11);Nepal Sadbhavana Party Mahato 9 (4 plus 5);Nepal Sadhavana Party (Anandi Devi 2 (0 plus 2); Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (Pashupati Shumshere group 8 (0 plus 8).Rashtriya Janashakti Party (Surya Bahadur Thapa group ) 3 (0 plus3); Rashtriya Prajatantrik Party (probably Rabindra Sharma group 3 (0 plus 3).
Several other parties, who do not find mention among the winners of the 240 seats, have won some seats. Among them are a number of Communist Parties with interesting names but with hardly any support bases.
The most interesting aspect of the election results announced so far is that the Nepali Congress Party has NOT been wiped out, contrary to write- ups by some well known columnists. They have won a total of 110 seats, .It is half of the number of seats won by the Maoists, but if we look into the percentage e of votes won by various parties, which became apparent with the results announced on April 25, the Maoists have won just a little less than 30 peer cent votes and the Nepali Congress, a little less than 23 per cent. The CPN-UML has polled a little less than 22 per cent .The total Madheshi seats will be 51 plus 20 plus 9 plus 2 or 82 in a House of 575.The nominated members too will include Madheshis, which may take their tally to nearly 90 in a House of 601.This will be a formidable number enabling them play a decisive role.. What is more, the nearly 90 members can very forcefully demand the establishment of a Madheshi province out of the Federal structure the new Nepal will have because the new Nepal will be a federal democratic republic.
Another aspect that has become clear is that the Maoists have a support base of only about 30 per cent, not the inflated claims of their sweep across the country described by respected Indian columnists. Some percentage of these votes were almost certainly obtained through terrorist tactics through the Young Communist League (YCL). Lastly, these votes have decided, if any confirmation was necessary, that the monarchy has absolutely no role to play in Nepal. King Gyanendra, who appears to be preparing tie leave the Narayanhiti royal palace, must be ruing his decision of February 1, 2005 when he had taken over power in his own hands dismissing a government headed by Sher Bahadur Deuba, a nominated Prime Minister. But then, will Prachanda occupy the Palace? Time only will tell if he will.
It is clear that the Maoists will have to go in for a coalition government if Prachanda insists upon becoming the Prime Minister. But then, the non-Maoists such as the Nepal Congress, the CPN-UML and the Madheshis together can hammer out a majority and form the Government. One, however, is to consider the fact that the House to be constituted will only be the Constituent Assembly and not Parliament. The task of this House will be to write a new Constitution of Nepal. Governance will be a secondary aspect for the new House. The various parties may decide upon running the administration on the basis of consensus. This might involve resurrection of the seven-party alliance, which did not work during the elections.
Arabinda Ghose
Print This Page
Terms
and Conditions