As the next general elections draw near, the Opposition is busy drawing up plans to prevent the United Progressive Alliance from returning to power at the Centre. Though faced with a severe multi-pronged attack, the Congress Party gives little indication of being prepared to withstand it and stage a comeback. The situation is getting confused with shifting political alignments, with the Left closing ranks with the so-called United National Progressive Alliance and working to install a non-BJP, non-Congress government. Though the National Democratic Alliance is becoming more and more irrelevant, with most of its constituents parting company with the Bharatiya Janata Party, and some still trying to sail in two boats for individual gain, the phenomenon of politics without principles and politicians without scruples is in full play.
The Congress and the BJP, after stocktaking exercises, have identified their weak points to be attended to during the campaign. The CPI and CPI(M) have just emerged from their respective party congresses, fortified with time-worn ideological rhetoric, as usual, vituperative against the United States and its "sinister" designs in the region and critical of the failings of the Government, which is said to have deviated from the Common Minimum Programme and brought misery and hardship on the people. They are up against a wall and are desperate to retain their present strength in the Lok Sabha, which is the highest in the history of independent India. They are desperate to prevent a decline in numbers which would reduce their relevance.
The" feel good" atmosphere created by the Union Budget is sought to be vitiated by mounting an fierce attack on the Government over issues, such as, increase in the prices of essential commodities, rural crisis and alleged departure from established foreign policy to appease the United States and failure to curb terrorism and communalism. Without actually taking the fatal step, the Left is playing brinkmanship over the nuclear deal and making it clear that the Government survives on its mercy. It has violated all norms of political decency by maligning the Government, while still pretending to support it; and Government does not have the courage to ask it to mind its business.
Left alone is not guilty of misbehavior. After bitterly fighting the Congress in Meghalaya and preventing it from forming the Government, the nationalist Congress Party leader makes bold to talk of all the UPA constituents together fighting the next general election to prevent division of votes and ensure its smooth return to power. This sounds sensible, but words to do not match deeds. The Left, even though supporting the UPA, wants to keep its ammunition dry, not wanting to be identified with its policies. Nothing now holds together the NDA, except its symbol in the convener, George Fernandes. The TDP, Indian National Lok Dal, Asom Gana Parishad and Jharkhand Vikas Party have parted company with the "communal" BJP, which they hugged tight for five years as long as they were in power and have again got together in the UNPA, whose prime mover is the Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav and the latest entrant is the Left. Their post-election behaviour still remains a conjecture because nothing holds them together temporarily except common hatred of the Congress Party, and alignments will become negotiable if power is within sight.
The Left says that its impeccable alliance with the Congress post 2004 will not be possible now and a "Third Front" claim to power is a strong possibility in the event of the requisite numbers coming through. It has joined anti-nuclear pact rallies with the UNPA, to retain its anti American image and ideological affinity with the weak and the down-trodden, whose lot has worsened a good deal in the states run by it -- West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura -- because rhetoric and ideological gasoline do not fill hungry stomachs, nor provide jobs and shelter to the millions lacking both. After their Party Congresses, the Left parties have said they will spare no efforts to isolate the BJP-RSS combine, which spearheads the communal forces in the country, struggle to defend national sovereignty, mobilize democratic sections to thwart the "US imperialist design to convert India into its strategic ally" and continue to champion the cause of the Dalits, tribals women and minorities.
On the issue over which it has threatened to withdraw support from the UPA Government it says that pursuit of an independent foreign policy requires that India does not enter into a strategic alliance with the US and opposes the India-US defence framework agreement. Over the nuclear issue the Left and the BJP have taken identical positions, though the latter does not share the Communists hatred of the US. As senior US officials have pointed out, they are perplexed by the BJP's opposition because the Vajpayee government was prepared to settle for even 50 per cent of what India had got through the deal. The BJP's position is further compromised by support for the deal articulated, belatedly though, by Vajpayee's Principal Secretary and National Security Adviser Brajesh Mishra.
It is arguable whether Dr. Manmohan Singh's group of advisers went overdrive, bolstered by the Government's decision to get close to the US, while negotiating the deal and accepted a couple of points which did not conform to the spirit of the Bush-Manmohan Singh statement . Dr. Singh National Security Advisor virtually took over the role of the External Affairs Minister and has been making unwarranted policy pronouncements which are embarrassing to the government and considered inappropriate. Had the political nuances of the deal been realized while negotiating, much of the trouble being faced by the Prime Minister could have been avoided. The position is that there is no way the deal can be pushed through during the present tenure of the Government. But it has provided a handle to the opposition to attack the government, and project an image of indecisiveness and lack of cohesion in policy making and execution.
Ranged against such adversaries, what is the Congress Party doing to shore up its defenses and acquire an offensive edge to perform better in the next elections to be able to reduce dependence on slippery allies? The Party President Sonia Gandhi admits to weaknesses in the party and lack of enthusiasm and effort. Whether appropriate lessons have been drawn from the recent debacle in Meghalaya and Nagaland and whether the real weaknesses in the organisation that have led to shrinking of its sphere of influence have been identified, remains to be seen. The budding General Secretary, Rahul Gandhi, has identified the ills, as his father Rajiv Gandhi had done in 1985 when he succeeded India Gandhi, but time has shown that the remedies have not been applied. Rahul Gandhi rightly says there is no internal democracy in political parties, including his own Congress Party. The Congress needs a "complete overhaul" as the present arrangement has only widened the gap between the party and the people.
The country's problems are known, so are the solutions. But remedies can work only when politicians listen to the people. A big gap separates the two now. Inner-party democracy would not only bridge the people-politician gap, but would also enthuse young people to join politics, which would help solve the country's problems through onergic effort and dedication to the cause of serving the people. His mother Sonia Gandhi also has given expression to similar views from time to time but, as she herself confesses, she has not been able to do much. The party has not been rejuvenated under her decade-old leadership. It is getting fragmented and lost the support of its traditional constituency -- Dalits, minorities, upper castes and has not been able to counter the appeal of communal and casteist forces.
The example of Uttar Pradesh is typical. The state has deteriorated economically, as well as, socially in the past decade or so under BJP, SP and BSP rule. Sonia Gandhi identifies malady as successive parties thriving on caste and communal agendas to garner votes, and were also guilty of opportunism and misleading and dividing the people. What is the Congress doing to counter this and recapture its lost constituency? Rahul Gandhi has the answers. Unless the party identifies with the people's struggle against poverty and communal and divisive forces and launches a mass mobilization programme, as Rahul Gandhi is now trying to do, it cannot hope to retrieve lost ground and retain primacy on the political scene. This needs grassroots work, relentless struggle and effective governance.
MK Dhar, NPA
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