As the Congress led United Progressive Alliance government enters its final year in office before the next Lok Sabha elections falls due, the national political pot has started simmering. Both ruling and opposition political alliances have become vocal - in crowing about their own achievements, preferences and wish-lists for the future. No doubt, it will take one year's time to figure out the results of the battle of the ballot to emerge, but current indicators cannot be missed.

While clear electoral majorities at the national level have become a distant dream for political parties, the emergence of regional voices have become an emphatic reality and have to be given space by parties with all India presence. From the simmering pot comes the repeated need for a non-Congress, non-BJP dispensation, which may fill in a perceived void in the coming years.

While the United Progressive Alliance dispensation which has a moody and specific agenda oriented ally in the Left parties thinks it has been able to add several feathers in its cap with its flagship plans. The Bharatiya Janata Party led National Democratic Alliance is currently finding the wind deserting its sails as far as regional allies are concerned--like Telugu Desam Party, Asom Gana Parishad and the United Janta Dal. Electoral victories in Gujarat, Himachal and Uttrakhand are its strength.

While all parties are hopeful of making a killing in April-May 2009, UPA government has backed its hopes with some statistics. Out of the budget estimate of Rs. 99,000 crores in 2007-08 for implementation of over two dozen flagship programmes, the government could spend approximately about Rs 51,000 crores, scoring over 51 percent marks of implementing its flagship programmes till January this year. There have been mixed progress of individual schemes. While it achieved 100% expenditure target for National Agricultural Insurance Scheme, implementation of various components in Bharat Nirman slipped significantly media reports have indicated. The government could achieve only 39 percent of the target under National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, achievement under Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana has been 32 percent, Rajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana (RGGVY) could manage 49 percent. Also listed in the report is the Accelerated Rural Water Supply Programme 35 percent, Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission 47 percent and Mid-day meal Scheme (56 percent) were the other achievements.

The UPA's bonnet in the last four years has been the four Left parties comprising Communist Party of India, Communist Party of India (Marxist), Forward Bloc and Revolutionary Socialist Party that had offered support to the Congress led government at the Centre on the basis of a common minimum programme of policies that would be adhered to by the UPA as the thumb rule for development. It was agreed that economic and social development would be the guiding spirit with a socialist angle. The UPA-Left understanding has weathered several major storms and now seems to be wavering on the issue of UPA opting for a civilian nuclear deal with the United States of America government.

CPI (M) general secretary Prakash Karat who has hard line image has reiterated that is no question of government proceeding with the nuclear deal as it would lead to withdrawal of support by the Left. He has dismissed the speculation that after International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) talks, the government may be able to clinch the deal and that no decision could be taken without the Left's consent. UPA government foreign minister Pranab Mukherjee has clarified that neither a minority or a care-taker government could proceed with such a major international deal, indicating that the democratic way would be to wait for the next general election and see if the new parliament would favour the deal. The Left parties' own image has taken a beating the last one year in West Bengal after violence and killings by active party cadre. Relations between Congress and Left could sour further and make the latter strive for the elusive Third Front.

Other than periodic statements the smaller and regional parties have not been able to identity who could be their main ally at the Centre, if and when the elusive Third front does come into being. Sporadic meetings between possible like minded parties are the only activity being recorded as now.

Congress Party has woken up to need of being friendly with smaller parties like Samajwadi Party, led by Mulayam Singh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh. At one point of time in late 1990s, Mr. Yadav denied political support to Mrs. Sonia Gandhi when she (or her nominee) could have formed a Congress left government. However, her son Rahul Gandhi has reached out to SP leader Amar Singh, clearing the way for possible understanding and realignments at a later stage. Rashtriya Janta Dal ally Lalu Prasad Yadav has stood by the UPA government and has secular credentials over the years.

BJP's alliance with BSP led by Ms Mayawati in UP in the first half of this decade has left a bad taste in the mouth for them. The Third Front, yet only in the minds of middle path parties like Telugu Desam and Asom Gana Parishad, have declared BJP a no-no. So, no possible alignments there too soon. The BJP leadership and think tank have not yet articulated their ideas or plans for economic resurgence of the nation, if they aim at winning power at the Centre.

The latest problem that the UPA is facing is inflation and stiff price rise that the population will not forget nor let the government forget in hurry. At this stage Finance Minister P Chidambaram has assured that the government will forgo the pace of development to curb inflation and price rise, however costs have escalated to a 53 week high, Voters senior citizens, housewives who are a vocal lot today are not liking it one bit. In fact the transitory pleasure of tax and income saving opportunities have almost been lost, in just about four weeks time. And these factors will have a bearing on the voters at election time. That aside, it will one full year of waiting and watching with interest the developments of the nation and UPA'S ability to handle crises or difficult situations.

May the best party or parties win, given the fluid situation as of now.