The
failure of Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf's image building
exercise in Europe must have convinced him that not only has
there been a precipitous decline in his support within his
own country, but his rating abroad also has plummeted. Months
of continuing political turmoil, marked by mass protests,
and plans by lawyers to revive their agitation which galvanized
the nation and the mounting demand for his resignation have
robbed him of whatever legitimacy he enjoyed. He had clamped
emergency and earned a reprieve from hand-picked judges of
the Supreme Court, who had taken the oath of loyalty to the
mutilated Constitution he had promulgated. Even these in the
West who have been backing him consistently in order to fight
the war against international terrorism, doubt that the February
18 elections will be free, fair and transparent, despite Musharraf
's repeated assurances against rigging and post-poll manipulations.
Mr.
Musharraf benefited from divisiveness among the opposition
parties and hopes the same phenomenon will prevent emergence
of a single party as enjoying a clear majority in the new
National Assembly. He will then have a role to play in government
formation and again cobble together a coalition of loyalists,
such as, the PML (Q) which will not question his authority
or take away his draconian powers of dismissing an elected
government and dissolving parliament without assigning reason.
With the help of government agencies and a big intelligence
apparatus, he thinks he can manipulate the situation his way
and yet project himself as a democrat, who allowed the election
to take place. That he is holding on to office tenaciously
despite his proven unpopularity is borne out by the continuing
unrest in Pakistan. While the opposition wants him to quit
the scene, his perceived friends aboard also are not sure
that he is their best bet.
Another
shock was administered to him while he was in Europe when
over 100 retired Army generals, including former Chiefs of
staff, Air Marshals, Bureaucrats, Ambassadors etc, in a joint
statement, demanded his ressignation to save Pakistan from
greater turmoil and possible disintegration and to let democracy
prevail and an elected civilian government run the country's
affairs. But, he remained adamant on introducing his style
of democracy in Pakistan and asked western nations to give
up their" obsession" with democracy. He had introduced the
"essence" of democracy, but he could not be as forward-looking
as the west demanded same tired words from the old script.
To Pakistan this served as a reminder that even after a year
of traumatic events, Musharraf makes no efforts to recognize
this cure for the many ills plaguing the political system.
The rejection of a true democratic order like the West's with
emphasis on fundamental rights and civil liberties for all
and not one that is tailored to ,meet his vision can only
aggravate the already difficult situation.
Pakistan's misfortune has been military adventurism ruling
the roost for over half of its existence, systematically ruining
what democratic traditions already existed and mutilating
the 1973 constitution beyond recognition and depriving it
of its core democratic content. The ex-generals, diplomats
and other have now again joined together to bluntly tell him
that his resignation and ushering in genuine civilian democracy
would not only help retrieve the situation, but also help
combat the forces of extremism, fundamentalism and terrorism.
Musharraf's policy of dividing terrorists among acceptable
and unacceptable categories does not have any takers in Pakistan,
or in other countries. With Benazir Bhutto removed from the
scene and there being no guarantee that Musharraf will hold
free and fair elections, Washington also has been driven into
a corner and left with no option other than continuing to
support Musharraf.
Secretary
of State Condoleezza Rica has nearly endorsed his stand. Though
Americans are working hard to try to ensure that the coming
elections will be an opportunity for Pakistan to get back
on a democratic path and an opportunity for the Pakistanis
to come together, she said. "But, democracy was not born in
a minute," she concluded, implying thereby that democracy
of the Pakistan Army's brand would continue to be acceptable
to the US and that its sermons on democracy worldwide need
not be taken seriously. Apart from hawking his version of
democracy, Mr. Musharraf has also been hammering on the theme
of his indispensability to the fight against fundamentalism
and terrorism. Therefore, the election scene in Pakistan has
been manipulated very much the Musharraf way, he has extended
his tenure as President by five years by altering the constitution,
imposing emergency, dismissing the Chief Justice and dozen
judges of the Supreme Court and fifty other High Court judges
and getting the Loyalists in the dissolved parliament to reject
him with the entire opposition boycotting.
Benazir Bhutto's assassination, brought about through a conspiracy
hatched by his cronies, has removed a thorn in his side. To
ensure that the Pakistan People's Party does not cash in on
the sympathy generated by Bhutto's killing, he postponed the
elections by six weeks. To prevent the PPP from securing absolute
majority in the National Assembly and claiming to form the
government and then creating problems for him, he brought
the PML(N) leader Nawaz Sharif from exile and made him fight
the elections, after jettisoning his earlier agenda of seeking
Musharraf's removal from office, setting up a national government,
reconstitution of the Election Commission etc. Sharif now
says that his elected MPs will pursue his agenda in Parliament,
perhaps, hoping that some way may he found for his party to
become part of the government though as of now, he personally
is barred from contesting.
The
other parameters within which the elections are to take place
also remain unaltered. The interim government appointed by
his continues, so does the Election Commission packed with
his cronies, the issue of 25 million missing voters from the
electoral rolls, over which the sacked Chief Justice had issued
notice to the Government and the Election Commission, remains
unresolved. No provision has been made for women voters, who
do not possess photo identity cards (on account of religious
prejudice against being photographed) to cast their vote.
Even though emergency has been lifted, the curbs on the Press
and TV remain very much in place and the media is forced to
abide by government regulations against criticism, whose violation
attracts severe punishment. For instance, criticism of the
military is treated as treason and is to be decided by military
courts. By elimination Benazir Bhutto, many leaders have removed
the first obstacle to returning to power.
These
include Chaudhury Shujaat Hussain, the PML(Q) leader, his
cousin Pervez Ilahi, former Chief Minister of Punjab and Arbab
Rahim of Sindh Province. The Chaudhry clam and Arbab were
not so confident because their power is contrived, a gift
from Musharraf. Shujaat regards himself as power behind the
throne. Perves Ilahi, not satisfied with Chief Ministership
of Pakistan's most populous and prosperous province, Punjab,
has dreams of becoming Prime Minister, his son Moonis is standing
for the National Assembly from Lahore. The King's Party's
third generation stands impatiently in the wings eager to
enter the political scene and grab office. Musharraf's cronies
have made the election a pro-or anti-Musharraf exercise, as
if nothing else matters more than his continuing to hold on
to office.
The
people of Pakistan, denied justice, civil rights, democracy,
good governance and social justice are not in the reckoning.
Even the six-party Islamist Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal is split;
while Musharraf-friendly Maulana Farlur Rahman is contesting
the election, the Jamaat-e-Islami, its biggest constituent
argues that the polls would be rigged and there is no use
participating. But for the fight he had with Musharraf, Nawaz
Sharif was known to be close to the Army, as well as, the
Islamists. His PML(N) is contesting because he does not want
to leave the field clear for PPP or PML(Q) to form a government.
Pursuing his anti-Musharraf campaign to promises his voters
that he will ensure fulfillment of the conditions he had laid
down for his party's participation in the elections, including
reinstatement of all the dismissed judges.
The
PML(Q) promises an end to the culture of violence (which it
festered and nurtures and revenge and bring in reconciliation.
Its manifesto is based on "fiveDs"--democracy, development,
devolution, diversity and defence -- setting up an alphabet
war against the PPP which launched its manifesto before Benazir's
death, based on "five Es"--employment, education, energy,
environment and equity. The PML(Q) promises sound unreal,
considering that it was Musharraf's sheet anchor and supported
changes in the Constitution, which deprived it of its democratic
content and vested dictatorial powers in the Army Chief. Musharraf
would still like the loyalist party his side, unless the people
of Pakistan vote decisively and freely and consign it to the
dustbin of history.
MK Dhar, NPA |
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