There are just 14 months left for the next general elections in India- in late April-early May in 2009, early enough for the major political parties to wake up to the truth and start planning for it.

Not a day too late, looking at the series of problems each one of them is facing at the individual.

The Congress Party for one is in a fix, after having lost two consecutive state assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh to bitter rival the Bharatiya Janata Party, which won by impressive leads in both the states. Going by the campaigning done by Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, who in Gujarat made the now infamous merchants of death remark about state Chief Minister Narendra Modi, who led his party to victory the third time, she touched the hate-Congress chord amongst the people of the state.

The voters shunned the Congress election symbol the hand and opted in large numbers for the lotus in bloom.

The predicament for the Congress Party ally and Left Front leader party Communist Party of India (Marxist) is similar if not more alarming, if the assembly by-election in West Bengal's Balagahar seat is any indication. Hemmed in from all sides the CPI(M) will have to put up lifesaving task for itself in the coming elections polls in ten states between now and February 2009, to be followed by general elections in April-May in the same year.

There is every likelihood that both Congress Party and CPI(M) may become the victims of the deadly and dreadful incumbency factor in the near future. Several spheres like law and order, agriculture, environment, health labour and employment, food availability at reasonable prices and through the public distribution system are crying for attention but not getting it from the government or through the administrative machinery. At periodic intervals one reads about diversion of low cost foodgrains meant for distribution system for below the poverty line recipients in remote and rural areas of the country, being diverted to the open markets.

Many times, serious attempts to provide succour and relief from government get shot down by inter-ministerial differences in perspective and approach. At the Centre, as election time approaches, the Government has on the anvil a mega farm loan restructuring package, covering bad and doubtful debt of at least Rs. 30,000 crores.

The proposal, which is close to finalization by both Agriculture and Finance ministries, is likely to be announced in the budget proposals after the details are thrashed out in the interim.

The Agriculture ministry has suggested that farm loans worth around Rs. 100,000 crores- classified non-performing and overdue-be set aside for five years and defaulting farmers who are in debt with no fresh assistance forthcoming, be given more credit. Over the next five years, 20 percent of the loan would be written off every year if the farmer paid his installments on time. At the end of five years, the farmer would have cleared all his previous dues and also be eligible to start on a fresh note. The proposal requires that the government provide banks with Rs 100,000 crores- since the move would amount to writing off debt, if not immediately then over a five year period.

Instead, the Finance Ministry has suggested that the Government take up cases which have been termed non-performing assets estimated to be worth Rs 30,000 crores. It wants that banks should be allowed to negotiate with farmers to seek a repayment of a portion of the remaining loan. This would result in banks taking a lower loss and the immediate problem of finding money would be dealt with. As of now the matter is under discussion and a decision awaited. Dilemma waiting to be solved if not, it will give the Centre a bad name.

Congress Party's major partner CPI (M) is also in throes of pain and collective agony. The media from Kolkata has observed that rarely is an election victory as much a cause for concern as the Balagarh result must be for the CPI(M), which retained the assembly seat in the end December. Given the public protests over events at Nandigram and other recent issues, a drop in the party's victory margin, compared to that in the last assembly elections, was always on the cards.

But a reduction of nearly 10,000 votes in a constituency that is a almost entirely rural- though Balagarh has two big factories and Scheduled caste one- showed a strong anti-CPI(M) current in the public mood. Worse still- a local media observation noted-the CPI (M) could thank the disunity in the Opposition ranks for its victory in by poll.

Not a completely united opposition, but just an alliance between Trinamool Congress and the BJP as in the 2006 assembly polls, would have resulted in the defeat of CPI(M)'s Balagarh candidate Bhuban Pramanik.

The local observers said in their report that CPI (M)'s vote share in Balagarh elections over the last 15 years has been about 48 percent. The CP(I) spokesman in Kolkata admitted after the by poll results were announced that there is confusion amongst the voters over the course of development followed by the government and that the party would have to work hard to dispel all misgivings amongst the people.

As the next round of state assembly elections are approaching, for the Congress Party at least it is time to find and encourage grassroots level youth members amongst whom will emerge leaders of the future. As of now the Nehru Gandhi family at the helm of affairs is making efforts to encourage voters to support the Congress Party. But very clearly, that is not proving enough for the states. They are only drawing curious crowds, but that is not converting into votes at the crunch hour.