The Palestinians may not gamble at the start of the peace process after seven long and bloody years. Both sides seem convinced that negotiations are better than not talking and certainly better than continued bloodshed and all round destruction.
As the chances of the Palestinians and Israelis making a breakthrough in their negotiations are nil, the Annapolist peace Conference has, at last paved the way for a meaningful dialogue between them on a final status deal. Even though it will be difficult for Palestinian authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to conclude a bargain within 14 months that US President Bush has in office over creation of two independent democratic states living side by side in peace and harmony, the facts of serous talks beginning and Washington monitoring compliance by both, augur well for peace returning to the strife-torn region.
No doubt, the two leaders have to overcome many hurdles, make difficult compromises and overcome opposition from Hamas and hardliners, but they have shown courage in taking a step forward, with forces of international goodwill behind them. The start is the "road map" peace plan of 2003, which means Israel is to freeze settlement building in the West Bank, while the Palestininan Authority takes action against militants who attack Israel. Teams of negotiators are expected to work overtime to settle the major issues- the borders of a Palestinian State, the division of Jerusalem, the fate of 4.5 million Palestinian refugees living in neighbouring Arab countries and the sharing of waters.
Israel and PA should not potter along as they have dome so far despite countless meetings and pressure needs to be kept up on them to seek a compromise. The negative forces are already at work. Iran, which has started to throw its regional clout regardless of American pressure, Hezbollah and Hamas, which controls Gaza, have characterised Annapolis as a betrayal of Palestinian demands. All three do not recognize Israel and cannot stomach an agreement with that country. Iran wants Israel to be removed from the world map, while Hamas cannot stomach a state of the Jewish people, having said that an agreement between PA and Israel would not be acceptable to it.
No doubt, a divided Palestine with Abbas controlling only the West Bank and Hams fully in change of the Gaza strip, is in no shape to given it self. But dealmakers hope that when an agreement is reached, Hamas needs to be bullied or cajoled into accepting Israel's permanent existence. But, the pitfalls have not prevented Abbas and Olmert from thrashing out their differences with the ultimate objective of setting down as peaceful neighbors.
Yet, it must be conceded, that it was the Iran factor which brought most of the Arab states to Annapolis. They felt that progress for the Palestinians would blunt Iran's appeal in the battle of Muslim hearts and minds, pushing back Tehran's regional clout. But overwhelming world support provides Abbas with essential cover. As the Arab league fully supported him, he will not be making compromises alone. With ministers from over 40 countries present, it means that there exists tremendous goodwill in favour of peace, and there is greater height to fall if the process fails.
The Palestinians may not gamble at the start of the peace process after seven long and bloody years. Both sides seem convinced that negotiations are better than not talking and certainly better than continued bloodshed and all round destruction. No doubt, Israelis are still unable to get over the unilateral troop and settlements withdrawal from the Gaza strip and the 2006 unsuccessful Lebanese campaign in which Hezbollah inflicted heavy losses on them Olmert will have a very tough time convincing them to pull out Jewish settlements from the West Bank as well, or stop construction of the wall to separate Israel from Palestinian territory.
Abbas' problems are immense, which he can tackle if the US gives full support for Israeli withdrawal from occupied territories. He is presently in no position to meet the demand for destruction of the militant infrastructure on Palestinian territory. He cannot think of a Palestinian state without Gaza and Hamas in it. To mollify the Syrians, Olmert needs to negotiate on withdrawal from the Golan Heights. All these factors cloud the progress of the talks on the creation of a Palestinian State with secure and internationally accepted and geographically fully defined borders.
The road, though paved with good intentions, is full of pitfalls. India has, for decades, supported the creation of a Palestinian State with fully secure and defined borders. As Union Minister for science and Technology, Kapil Sibal told the conference, West Asia is part of India's "extended neighborhood" with which it has had close interaction over millennia. India is ready to play its role in strengthening the forces of peace and stability in the region. It has been emphasized in the joint under taking that negotiations will be bilateral between the parties. None realizes better than they that, even with the best of intentions, it requires unprecedented determination, goodwill and capacity to offer and accept compromises, if objectives of mutual understanding are to be achieved.
No doubt, Israel has to make territorial concessions, without which a settlement is not possible. The Middle East Peace Process would address the unfinished agenda on the Lebanon and Syrian tracks. The Arab Peace Initiative, re-launched in Saudi Arabia in March, provides a constructive framework for achieving a comprehensive peace. It will take immense courage for Mahmoud Abbas to modify the "final status" issues that are areas of major disagreement between the Israelis and Palestinians. They include the 1967 borders of a future Palestinian State, a capital in Jerusalem and the right of the 405 million Palestinian refugees to return to what is now Israel.
The Israelis fear in that case Palestinians outnumber the Jews in Israel, thus defeating the purpose of a separate state for the jews. Mr. Abbas is, however, upbeat and nourishes hope that permanent status negotiations and expanded negotiations over all relevant issues would now start and, hopefully, lead to a peace agreement between the Isralie and Palestinians. Olmert hopes that a final status agreement will be reached by the end of President Bush's term in office, but implementation would begin only if the first stage of the roadmap- dismantling the terror infrastructure is over. Without, however, giving a time-table, Israel will begin dismantling the outposts and the freeze on construction would apply to new settlements.
It is conceded by all that it will be suicidal for a Palestinian leader to recognize Israel as a "Jewish State" in advance, but Mr. Olmert insists that such recognition is not subject to either negotiations or discussion. At home the rightists in his coalition government have created new problems for him as regards the future status of Jerusalem. They mean to get passed the first reading of a bill in Parliament requiring that division of Jerusalem must be approved by a two-thirds majority of MPs.
Given the nature of the coalition, this is an impossibility. The creation of a suitable atmosphere for such territorial adjustments will depend on the programs of the talks and easing of tensions between the two sides. The limited experiments to contain militancy has not succeeded. Israel allowed the Palestinian Authority to deploy up to 500 policemen in the West bank city of Nubulus, but it continues to raid the refugee camps in search of men wanted for acts of terrorism. Israel argues that till such times as PA forces become effective and able to deal with the situation, it cannot afford to continue as a target of terrorist attacks.
Israel feels secure after shutting off West Bank behind a barrier to thwart Palestinian attacks and the Palestinians may continue to receive life support till such time as an agreement emerges. Further delays will only strengthen hardliners in both camps and outsiders will have greater opportunity of interfering in the middle to settle their own scores, without regards to the suffering and misery of the Palestinians. Even though PA received external aid, it is unable to undertake development projects because most funds go towards payment of salaries. Development cannot proceed unless Israel removes most of the nearly 600 checkpoints barriers within the West Bank. The UN and EU representatives and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair has in mind a series of development projects and hopes that foreign donors, at their next meeting, will pledge larger sums.
Abbas needs to streamline administration and remove corruption and waste to make optimal use of the scare resources available in a disturbed situation.
MK Dhar, NPA
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