After packing off Mian Nawaz Sharif to serve his full ten-year term in exile in Saudi Arabia, Gen Musharraf now prepares to deal with another former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on her return, without having accepted any of her demands. Even though she is technically on bail, she has been warned that she will face corruption charges pending against her on return and should prepare to bear consequences thereof.
Beleaguered though he is, Gen. Musharraf has cleared another hurdle to his re-election from the existing national and provincial legislatures before her return to Pakistan. He has enough time to sort out the other issues, but it is still uncertain whether, despite US pressure and the Supreme Court's vigilance, free, fair and trans-parent elections will be held in Pakistan early next year, allowing full participation by the mainstream parties.
Benazir Bhutto is still rated the most popular politician in Pakistan, but her freedom to operate freely on the political scene is curtailed by her court cases, the ban on her becoming prime minister a third time and a split in Pakistan People's Party, many of whose MPs defected to the Musharraf camp after the last elections and were rewarded with cabinet berths and other lucrative posts. Once back on the scene, she should be able to revitalize her party and work to ensure that it emerges as the single largest party in the National Assembly to be able to lay claim to form the next government. One has to watch whether the military regime will again resort to massive rigging and manage to artificially put together a majority for the king's Party - PML (Q)-with the help of the fundamentalist Muttahida Hajlis-e-Amal, the Muttahida Quami Movement and independents and force her to sit in the opposition for the next five years; or, deal with her fairly and let the voter's decide.
Pakistan stands at the cross-roads and needs to define its political destiny in the coming months, or continue to be ruled by the military, aided by a servile civilian Prime Minister and opportunistic politicians who are unable to survive without the Army's protection and patronage. Pakistanis, by and large believe that the military should have no role to play in politics and governance. A national consensus has emerged on restoration of true political values, as well as, parliamentary democracy and genuine federalism. The people still have regard for the Army, but insist it has lost much of its sheen due to the personal ambitions of its top brass. If the present political polarization continues, it might put the Army in direct confrontation with the forces of democracy.
It is pointed out that the 1973 constitution, despite its inadequacies, still offers a great opportunity to actors across the political divide to settle the ongoing struggle. Under it a civilian President, by virtue of his or her being the supreme commander of the armed forces, provides for the Chief of Army Staff also being subservient to him. Therefore, a serving general, installing himself also as president, is a constitutional aberration. Though the Chief Election Commissioner has made it easy for him to stand for President again by waiving a rule, his participation in politics brings politics directly into the armed forces. Even if he doffs his Army uniform, his acceptability will not automatically increase, as it will be seen as a desperate move to cling to office by hook or by crook.
In any case, Musharraf has to make some top Army appointments, including those of chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff committee and vice-chief of the Army both of whom retire on October 8. Such appointments are normally a routine matter; these assume importance in view of the fluid political situation and future civilian-military relations, as well as, the strategic directions in the coming years. Those tipped for these slots, Director General Inter-Services Intelligence Ashfaq Kiani and Corps Commander Ten Corps Tariq Majeed are Musharraf loyalists and Washington should not have to worry in any let up of Pakistan's designated role as instrument of its strategic policy objectives in the region, as both share the Army Chief's world view.
On the domestic front it would mean revival of the troika system in vogue in the pre-1999 political dispensation. Although Army chiefs have got involved in politics of the country since 1958, the rank and file of the armed forces has remained aloof from the politics of the country. But, getting the armed forces politicized will have disastrous consequences for the country. Already many armed forces personnel have been executed for involvement in abortive attempts to assassinate Musharraf and over 15soldiers voluntarily surrendered before the Taliban and refused to fight them as they were in sympathy with their "Islamic cause". Many such incidents have gone unreported because of the strict censorship of news pertaining to the forces and the fear of being hauled up for committing blasphemy by bringing the forces into disrepute and facing a life term in prison.
Presently, with Gen Musharraf having perpetuated himself as Army Chief for close to nine years, the corps commanders feel reluctant to express their sincere views at meetings for fear of antagonizing the chief. There is a feeling within the Army that public feelings against it have never been so strong as today. The Army chief's is the first and last word on all issues as he is the architect of military, as well as, political policies and is not used to listen to dissent. This is because of the wide gap in the seniority between the chief and the senior-most corps commander. The present-day three star generals were lieutenant-colonels when Musharraf was Corps Commander in the 90s. This applies equally to Gen Kiani and Gen. Majeed. Although Khalid Kidwai is the senior-most lieutenants-general, he is out of the military command system and presently heads the Strategic Planning Division. He was to retire last month but Musharraf gave him a year's extension. He is the second exception after Gen. Hamid Javed (Retd), Chief of Staff to the President, who was given extensions in service since the Oct 12, 1999 military takeover. Musharraf himself also is an exception, as he is continuing as Army Chief since Oct 12, 1999.When these appointments are made, as many as, seven major -generals will be promoted to the rank of lieutenant- general and some corps will have new commanders.
There is a feeling among the ranks that a group of opportunists has been ill advising Gen. Musharraf. They badly let him down during the agitation over the Chief Justice's sack and he publicly berated them for sloth and inefficiency, almost bordering on betrayal. Some including the Musharraf created party PML (Q) leader Chaudhary Shujaat have even suggested to him to impose Marshal Law or emergency to stifle all opposition to his re-election and stay in power, of course, along with them. But, the public feeling is against any step which would be disastrous for the country's future. The military ruler and his subordinates in civilian bureaucracy and some rich rootless politicians share an elitist view of politics and believe that they alone understand what is good for the country and are intellectually batter equipped than the rest of Pakistanis. All military rulers have coopted servile civilians and kept them subservient to create a political façade of legislative backing.
By using a variety of political means, the military rulers have tried to undermine the national consensus by substituting the social contract with a concept of military-guided democracy, a euphemism for manipulating the institutions of state to keep the military in power and de-grade the legislatures and political processes. True democracy envisages genuine representation of the people and reflects fundamental political values. On the other hands, guided democracy, as practiced by the Army rulers in Pakistan reflects only power interests and personal ambitions of a ruler who assumes a messianic character and plays the role of a great visionary.
At the end of every episode of guided democracy, the third being in progress, Pakistan has developed deafer fissures because growth of democratic values and culture has been stunted. By stifling authentically mainstream parties and neutralizing popular politicians by clamping corruption and other serious charges against them and even forcing them into exile, the military rulers have directly promoted the growth of religious and fundamentalist parties and their extremist politics, the evil consequences of which are there for all to see.
Pakistanis hope that the US will at least see to it that Musharraf allows free and fair selections to take place so that a truly civilian and representative government is installed and the Army withdraws to the barracks. But, it could again turn out to be mere wishful thinking with no relief from military rule.
MK Dhar, NPA
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